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Maryland’s primary election is this Tuesday, Jun 23rd. There has been scant public polling on any of the key races Maryland voters are deciding on Tuesday. While some supporters (and even some candidates) have taken to Kalshi and Polymarket to justify their standings and winnability, we are basically stuck in a situation where our pWAR metric and fundaising prowess are the only public metrics that we actually have on this race.

Which means your guess is as good as mine.

With all that being said, here’s how I see things shipping up in a few races.

Gubernatorial Primary

• Democratic: The question here is whether Eric Felber, the Democrat running against Wes Moore for Governor in the primary, will cross the Fustero Line. Grocery clerk Raymond Fustero famously received 20% of the vote in the Democratic Primary against Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in 2002, and foreshadowed Townsend’s general election loss to Republican Bob Ehrlich.
  
  As unpopular as Moore is, I don’t see it happening.

• Republican: In the worst multi-candidate Republican primary in memory, the winner will be either Ed Hale or Dan Cox. Honestly, it’s a pick’em at this point: Hale is a former Democrat endorsed by a lot of Republicans, and Cox is a lifelong Republican who was a total disaster as the GOP nominee in 2022. This really could go either way, but I think Cox will win. Maybe. Ask me again in an hour.

Congressional Primary

• 5: Adrian Boafo will come out of this mess of candidates as the Democratic nominee and likely new Congressman.

• 6: Democratic primary voters have always rejected David Trone when a viable candidate is running against him. That’s not going to change facing incumbent April McClain Delaney.
  

  On the Republican side……does it matter?

State Senate Primaries

• 6: State Senator Johnny Ray Salling has a spirited challenge from Daniel Eisenhart in this Southeastern Baltimore County distirct. Salling should easily demolish Eisenhart.

• 17: Incumbent Cheryl Kagan is in the midst of a brutal primary with challenger Phil Cook. Kagan has survived before, and she probably will again.

• 32: Democrats tried to pull a switcheroo with this Senate seat, with incumbent Pam Beidle withdrawing at the last minute in an attempt to hand the seat to ex-Republican Delegate Mark Chang. Chang should win, but don’t discount the idea that Stephen Tillett could win.

• 41: Delegate Malcolm Ruff should defeat incumbent Dalya Attar based on Attar’s criminal issues.

• 42: Republican voters will reject the incompetent carpetbagging boob Adam Wood in favor of Kevin Ford.

County Executive Primaries

• Anne Arundel: Two county councilmembers, Pete Smith and Allison Pickard, face off in the Democratic primary with former Steuart Pittman flunky James Kitchin. The one poll that seems to exist is the very flawed Anne Arundel Community College poll that had Kitchin ahead in a tight race. I don’t buy it. I think Smith will survive this primary and face token opposition from Dave Crawford in the general election.

• Baltimore County: What an ugly race this has been, with accusations being traded back and forth at will. I think that County Councilman Julian Jones will win this primary, with the only thing certain being that Councilman Pat Young will have plenty of time to make videos again.

• Harford: Speaking of ugly primaries, what’s in the water up in Harford County these days, where every Republican seems to hate each other? That being said, incumbent Bob Cassilly should prevail over Councilman Patrick Vincenti.

• Howard: Former Delegate Vanessa Atterbeary will win this primary, and pretty handily, too.

• Montgomery: As somebody who has never lived in Montgomery County, this county seems the toughest nut to crack from an outsider perspective. This race obviously gets a lot of coverage, however, being Maryland’s largest county. I do believe Councilman Andrew Friedson will win over Councilmen Evan Glass and Will Jawando, but it will be a long night for all of them.

How many of my predictions will be right? Not all of them, that’s for sure. But that’s a question for Wednesday morning…

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In politics, you are what your public records say you are. And for most of us, the images we use for social media profiles say a lot about how we want others to us.

Patti Stueckler is running for Calvert County Commissioner At-Large on a populist, “local values” message aimed at working families in a county that prides itself on rural heritage, civic tradition, and civil political discourse. But public records—including state tax records, voter registration data, business filings, and public statements—raise questions about whether that campaign image matches the record.

The records point to four issues voters may reasonably ask her to explain: a homestead tax credit tied to a property promoted as a short-term rental, voter registration at a different address, corporate entities that fell out of good standing, and forgiven Paycheck Protection Program loans received during a strong period for real estate and short-term rentals.

Here is what the public record shows—and the questions it raises.

1. The Homestead Question: Tax Breaks on a Short-Term Rental?

The first issue is straightforward: which property is the Stuecklers’ principal residence?

In Maryland, the Homestead Tax Credit caps property tax assessment increases for a homeowner’s principal residence. The key limitation is that the credit is intended for the place where the homeowner actually lives as their primary home.

According to the Maryland State Department of Assessments and Taxation, Patti and John Stueckler claim 3838 2nd Street in North Beach as their principal residence. John Stueckler bought the property out of foreclosure in 2017 for about $157,000. Soon after, Patti publicly described the project on Facebook and YouTube as a restoration intended to create an Airbnb beach rental.

State tax records show the deed for 3838 2nd Street moved among Stueckler-related entities for $0.00 before Patti and John Stueckler applied for a Homestead Tax Credit in December 2020.

Maryland law allows the state to recapture improperly received homestead benefits. If a credit is claimed willfully on a property that is not eligible, additional penalties may apply. That makes the core question important: was 3838 2nd Street ever the Stuecklers’ true principal residence?

Here’s what the simple two-page Homestead Tax Credit form asks five in simple yes or no questions.

There’s no penalty for having the application denied, but checking “yes” when you know it’s “no” and vis versa is potentially a much bigger deal. In fact, even applying for a Homestead Tax Credit, knowing that it won’t be a principal residence, can be a crime as is abundantly clear on the bottom of the application (highlights added):

I’m not alleging any laws were broken, that’s a matter for the state and county. But it seems a legitimate question for voters to ask Patti Stueckler, a Realtor who has helped buy and sell hundreds of homes – plus a few of her own - if she knew and followed the law when she and her husband applied for a homestead exemption for their rental property.

The central question remains: was 3838 2nd Street ever Patti and John Stueckler’s principal residence?

Key timeline for 3838 2nd Street:

• August 2, 2017 – John Stueckler, Patti’s husband, buys the house for $157,500 (SDAT)

• August 17, 2017 – Patti Stueckler posts the first of more than 17 YouTube videos on their restoration of 3838 2^nd St.

  • The series description reads, “Beach House Fixer Upper - From Foreclosure to Fabulous! This series takes you through the Stueckler family’s rehab project in North Beach, Maryland. John & Patti Stueckler purchase a foreclosure in 2017, totally renovating into a fabulously updated Airbnb.

• April 5, 2018 – Patti Stueckler in YouTube announces an April 12 “open house” for 3838 2^nd St and in video says they just had their first rental the previous week.

• April 11, 2018 – Patti Stueckler advertises an open

• April 16, 2018 – John Stueckler sells 3838 2^nd for $0.0 to Stueckler Enterprises, LLC

• July 28, 2020 – Stueckler Enterprises, LLC sells 3838 2^nd for $0.0 to John and Patti Stueckler. Current deed clearly marked Use: RESIDENTIAL, Principal Residence: YES

• August 27, 2020 – Stueckler announces the ground breaking of their new home and office:

• January 28, 2021 – Patti and John announce in a YouTube live video they are getting ready to build a new home and office at 8832 Bay Avenue in North Beach.

  • Streaming live, Patti interrupts John 30 seconds when he says they’re “getting ready to build a project with an office and a residence above it.” She walks back what John says, “right here on the waterfront you can’t do just a residence at least not anymore, so now you have to do mixed use.”

According to the Stuecklers themselves, 3838 2nd Street is and was from the start a short term rental property since 2018 as Patti says in a YouTube series she made titled “Beach House Fixer Upper” documenting the renovation of the property for use as short-term rentals and in numerous Facebook posts.

The home is listed on Airbnb as “The North Beach Retreat House” and rents for $2,095 for five nights.

Where did they reside between 2018 and today and what were the exact dates in each residence?

State tax records indicate the Stueckler’s claim the 3838 2^nd Street Airbnb as their principal residence. Yet publicly available records, dozens of Stueckler’s Facebook posts, numerous comments and interviews, voter registration and perhaps her candidacy record indicate that in the fall of 2021 the couple moved into the “Stueckler Building,” a three-story waterfront mixed-use property at 8832 Bay Avenue, assessed at more than $1.2 million.

So, which address should be treated as their principal residence for tax purposes and voter registrations?

2. The Voter Registration Question

Maryland voters are required to register at their legal residence. That makes the Stuecklers’ voter registration relevant to the homestead question.

According to Maryland State Board of Elections records, Patti and John Stueckler are actively registered to vote using 8832 Bay Ave #383 in North Beach as their residential address.

Question four on the Homestead Tax form asks:

This puts the candidate in a pickle:

If 8832 Bay Avenue is their legal residence, as reflected in voter registration records, then the homestead credit on 3838 2nd Street deserves scrutiny.

If 3838 2nd Street is their legal residence (as they claim to the tax office), then they are improperly registered to vote at a commercial address.

Both claims may have an explanation. But they cannot simply be waved away. A candidate asking voters for public trust should be able to clearly explain which address is her principal residence and why the public records appear to point in different directions.

3. A Tangled Web of LLCs

A candidate asking to help oversee Calvert County’s budget should be prepared to explain her own business filings. State records show several Stueckler-related LLCs, including entities listed as not in good standing or forfeited for apparent filing failures.

The issue is not the mere existence of multiple LLCs. Real estate professionals often use separate entities for liability, financing, and property-management purposes. The issue is whether those entities were properly maintained while Stueckler was presenting herself as a responsible steward of public business.

In a telling move, just days before launching her campaign for County Commissioner in February 2026, Patti rushed to file four years’ worth of taxes and missing reports (2023–2026) to reinstate Bay Avenue Development, LLC. Cleaning up years of corporate negligence only when it becomes politically convenient is not the hallmark of responsible leadership.

4. The Authenticity Problem

Stueckler’s campaign message leans heavily on “Calvert County values” and a populist posture. At the same time, her public social media presence includes first-class flights, luxury travel, black-tie events in Palm Beach, and photos from elite settings. Under one photo, she commented, “We love Mar-a-Lago!”

Another issue worth scrutiny is the two Paycheck Protection Program loans received by Stueckler Enterprises, LLC. Public loan data show the loans were later forgiven at a total taxpayer cost of $166,673.46. Voters may reasonably ask why the company sought pandemic-relief funds in 2020 and 2021 while Team Stueckler appeared to be doing strong business, short-term rentals (like a beachfront Airbnb) were in high demand, and the couple was building a new waterfront home and office. One loan record also listed the business age as “New Business or 2 years or less,” despite the LLC being organized in 2007.

There is nothing wrong with being wealthy, building a successful business, or enjoying luxury travel. The issue is authenticity and accountability. A candidate cannot campaign as a champion of working families while leaving unanswered questions about tax benefits, voter registration, corporate compliance, and forgiven taxpayer-backed loans. Calvert County deserves leaders whose public platforms match their private practices and voters deserve clear answers before Election Day.

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At no point did I think Senate President Bill Ferguson was facing serious trouble from his Democratic Primary Challenger Bobby LaPin…

…until yesterday.

Democratic leaders have quietly developed plans t…

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We previously wrote about Frederick County Republican Central Committee Candidate Kate Taylor in regards to hercanoodling with a white nationalist. Taylor is also, apparently, deeply concerned about …

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Elon Musk officially became a trillionaire last week. The number is so large it barely registers as real. A trillion dollars. If you spent a million dollars a day, every day, it would take you roughl…

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Donald Trump walked into the 2016 Republican primary as a lifelong Democrat, a man who had donated to Hillary Clinton, praised single-payer healthcare, and called himself “very pro-choice.” I’ve writ…

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This morning, the Maryland Freedom Caucus sent an excitable press release touting their newest scorecard rankings from the Institute for Legislative Analysis:

Maryland Freedom Caucus members have once…

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Jared Taylor, the Maryland Democrat who is treasurer for his wife’s campaign for Republican Central Committee, recently showed up at a fascist and white supremacist conference in Portugal.

European fa…

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Janet Mills reminded voters yesterday that she is, technically, still in this race. She never filed the paperwork to remove her name from the ballot. She simply “suspended active campaigning.” And given what has happened to Graham Platner over the past week, the reminder landed with some weight.

Which means the Maine Democratic primary on June 9 has three candidates on the ballot worth evaluating, even if only one of them has been regularly attending campaign events. The pWAR framework does not care about campaign activity. It scores candidates against a replacement-level generic partisan placeholder. Let’s run the numbers.

The replacement level for the Maine Democratic Senate primary is set at 1.0 pWAR, equivalent to the Maryland Democratic baseline. Maine is a purple state trending blue in federal elections, and Democrats have structural advantages in a 2026 anti-Trump environment. A generic Democratic nominee in this race would carry real value. These candidates are being measured against that.

It’s really not a close call.

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There has been a lot of ink spilled over the Maryland State Board of Elections’ error in sending the wrong ballot to voters in the upcoming June 23rd primary election.

And we all know why.

While the u…

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Once again, your gas tax is going up in Maryland:

Maryland motorists will face an increase in the state gas tax rate starting in next month, but whether they notice the change is another thing entirel…

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When selecting a candidate for Governor, the first place to stop is the general ideology. As we are conservatives, that immediately disqualifies Democrat Governor Wes Moore and Green Party nominee An…

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Infamous white supremacist Jared Taylor is the one who has been in the news recently. But it’s his wife who’s on the ballot.

Jared Taylor’s wife Kate is one of sixteen candidates running for the Frede…

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A Democratic County Council candidate in Howard County spent hundreds of dollars in campaign donations at retail clothing outlets.

Jessica Nichols, running in Howard County’s 2nd District, made multip…

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Like many of you, I sat down to watch the Maryland Republican Gubernatorial Debate tonight. Then, I turned it off.

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Maryland Governor Wes Moore may be running for Governor, but it is clear that the door he “closed” on a run for President is wide open.

In an interview airing tomorrow on YouTube with Politico’s Jonat…

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California’s June 2 primary is now less than three weeks out, and the race to succeed Gavin Newsom has produced something genuinely unusual: two Republicans spent most of the spring consistently leading the polls in a state that hasn’t sent a Republican to statewide office since 2006. The reason is structural. California uses a top-two primary system, where all candidates from all parties appear on a single ballot and only the top two vote-getters advance to November, regardless of party. In a cycle where Democrats were badly fragmented across seven or eight serious candidates and Republicans were consolidated behind two, the arithmetic was uncomfortable enough that some Democratic strategists put the odds of an all-Republican November at 27%.

That scenario has receded. But the Democratic field is still fragmented, and the primary itself has been chaotic enough to warrant running the whole thing through pWAR, especially now that the dust from Eric Swalwell’s implosion1 has begun to settle into something that looks like an actual race.

If you’ve been following this publication’s analytics work, you already know the framework. If not, the short version: pWAR (Political Wins Above Replacement) borrows from baseball’s WAR metric to measure a candidate’s value relative to a generic party-line placeholder. It asks not “did this candidate win?” but “did this candidate add anything beyond what any warm body with the right letter next to their name would have produced?” The formula combines Electoral Value (margin vs. party baseline), Financial Efficiency, a Difficulty Adjuster for hostile-environment performances, and Legislative Productivity and Constituent Service for incumbents, then subtracts penalties for primary losses, general election underperformance, and the dreaded Frequent Flyer Penalty for serial losers. California is not Maryland, so the replacement level baseline requires adjustment. In a state this blue, a Democratic replacement-level candidate is worth roughly 1.5 pWAR, and a Republican replacement-level candidate in a statewide race is worth roughly 0.0, given the party’s structural hole.

With that framing, let’s go through the field.

Xavier Becerra: +2.0 (revised upward from initial score of +0.8)

Becerra is now the polling frontrunner. The most recent Emerson poll (May 9-10) has him leading the field at 19%, having gained nine points since mid-April, with 31% support among Democratic primary voters. That matters for the pWAR score because the original +0.8 was an honest qualitative discount applied to a formula that produced +4.0 on paper. The discount reflected genuine uncertainty about whether his institutional record would translate into actual voter support. That uncertainty has resolved. It is translating.

The underlying formula still holds: long record as California AG and HHS Secretary, which generates real LP (+2.0) and CS (+1.0) credit. EV from his prior AG elections was always a soft input (+0.5) since those races were non-competitive. What’s changed is the FE_mod. His post-Swalwell donor surge has broadened his base meaningfully enough to move him from an average fundraiser (+0.5) toward grassroots-leaning (+1.0). He was pulling near-zero in fundraising before Swalwell’s exit opened a lane, then got a genuine small-dollar surge. No penalty history at the state level. DA_bonus = 0 for an environment he hasn’t faced competitively.

The formula now lands closer to +3.5. The qualitative adjustment comes down but doesn’t disappear: his debate debut drew criticism for lacking policy specifics and for grading Newsom’s homelessness record an ‘A’ on effort. That’s a real liability in a general election environment where homelessness is among voters’ top concerns.2 The honest score is +2.0. Institutional Ace, and the numbers finally reflect it.

One additional context note worth flagging here: California Democrats are now actively urging voters to wait until the last minute to cast ballots and then support whoever is polling in front, a coordinated strategic voting effort designed to consolidate the Democratic field around a single candidate. If that cohort breaks for Becerra, and right now he is the likeliest beneficiary, the +2.0 may underestimate his actual June 2 result. pWAR cannot price in tactical voting behavior. The caveat belongs on record.

Steve Hilton: +1.5

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The Maryland College Republicans paid thousands to bring white supremacist speaker Jared Taylor to Salisbury University last month.

And they did so to provide a platform to a divisive, bigoted Democr…

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Last night, I posted a video on Instagram talking about the latest dumbass moment from members of the Maryland Freedom Caucus:

Let’s face it, since Day One, I have pegged the Maryland Freedom Caucus f…

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With meaningful County Executive Races this year, it’s time to apply the pWAR framework to a few of them.

As a reminder, pWAR v4.2 measures a candidate’s electability relative to a generic party-line placeholder in their environment. The formula combines Electoral Value (margin vs. party baseline), a Financial Efficiency modifier, a Difficulty Adjuster bonus for candidates who’ve actually competed in hostile terrain, Legislative Productivity and Constituent Service scores for officeholders, and penalties for primary losses, general election underperformance, and perennial candidacy. For Maryland, replacement level is 1.0 pWAR for Democrats and 0.5 for Republicans, reflecting the structural partisan lean of the state. With that, let’s go county by county.

Anne Arundel County

Steuart Pittman is termed out, and what’s left behind is a genuinely competitive open-seat Democratic primary in a county that has trended blue but still swings. Three Democrats of note have filed: County Councilmember Allison Pickard (+2.4), County Councilmember Pete Smith (+1.8), and James Kitchin (+1.2), the outgoing executive’s top aide.

Pickard is the Institutional Ace in this field. She flipped a Republican-held council seat in 2018, has assembled an impressive endorsement list (Sarah Elfreth, a half-dozen General Assembly members), raised nearly $550,000, and has a demonstrated track record of winning in a district that was not supposed to be winnable. The DA_bonus credit for performing in hostile terrain goes to her alone among the top three. Her LP and CS scores reflect two terms of council work, and her FE_mod is strong given the small-dollar composition of her early fundraising.

Smith scores almost as well (+1.8) and actually led the field in early fundraising at $518,000 raised. His council tenure mirrors Pickard’s, and Shaneka Henson’s endorsement gives him a credible bloc of support. The gap between them mostly comes down to the DA_bonus, where Pickard’s history of winning competitive ground edges her out.

Kitchin is a more interesting case. He has no electoral record of his own (EV = 0 by definition for a first-time candidate), but he’s running a smart public financing campaign that looks efficient relative to its size, and the Teachers Association of Anne Arundel County endorsement is not nothing. At +1.2 he’s clearly above the Democratic replacement level, which means he’s a real candidate. He is not, however, the frontrunner.

The Republican side features Dave Crawford, a food service manager and volunteer firefighter who has raised $6,558. In a county where Pittman won re-election by seven points, Crawford scores −1.5. That number is not a knock on Crawford as a person. It’s a description of reality. He’s the embodiment of why the Republicans need to get serious about recruiting in suburban Maryland, and they haven’t.

Baltimore County

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