<![CDATA[The Duckpin]]>

<![CDATA[The Duckpin]]>https://www.theduckpin.comhttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_Hh0!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffbca48a8-d6e5-420a-a748-91dbead5142a_1280x1280.pngThe Duckpinhttps://www.theduckpin.comSubstackMon, 09 Nov 2026 05:00:35 GMT<![CDATA[Cox Beaten Harder than Ever]]>https://www.theduckpin.com/p/cox-beaten-harder-than-everhttps://www.theduckpin.com/p/cox-beaten-harder-than-everMon, 09 Nov 2026 02:33:42 GMT

Subscribe now

Share

Two weeks ago, I predicted that, due to Wes Moore’s unpopularity, Dan Cox would exceed his 2022 General Election vote percentage this year.

I think Cox may actually surpass his 2022 campaign slightly, getting maybe somewhere close to 34% of the vote instead of 32%. Basically, Cox is going to get closer to the Republican base vote in 2026 as compared to 2022, a number he failed to achieve during his first campaign for governor.

That did not actually happen.

Though it initially looked like Cox would perform better than 2022, his vote percentage in 2026 failed to achieve that level of desired performance.

I honestly thought that Cox had already reached the nadir for Republicans in 21st Century Maryland, but apparently I was mistaken. It’s hard to say how much of that had to do with Tuesday’s blue tsunami or Cox’s practically non-existent campaign,

No doubt, after losing a third consecutive election, Dan Cox’s next move will be to… run for public office in 2028. I have no doubt Cox is already considering running for Maryland’s U.S. Senate seat in 2028 and then Governor in 2030, primaries he would no doubt be favored to win again. Cox likely realizes that while he may not be favored to win elected office again, running for office is effectively free advertising for his law practice.

That seems to be as good a reason as any for Cox to continue to tilt at these windmills, to the detriment of conservatives and taxpayers across the state.1

See Ficker, Robin.

]]><![CDATA[Turning Point Failed the Test It Set for Itself]]>https://www.theduckpin.com/p/turning-point-failed-the-test-ithttps://www.theduckpin.com/p/turning-point-failed-the-test-itSat, 07 Nov 2026 13:14:31 GMT

As of this writing, Katie Hobbs has been re-elected, 55.6 percent to 42.7 as of Wednesday morning, a lead of nearly 278,000 votes. In 2022 she beat Kari Lake by just 17,000 votes. She is also the first Democrat to win re-election as Arizona governor since Janet Napolitano in 2006.

Andy Biggs was the Turning Point candidate in every way that mattered. Turning Point Action supplied the turnout machinery behind his primary win, where he took 73.4 percent with Trump’s endorsement.1 Right-wing groups, including Turning Point USA, spent more than $18 million in ads. The pitch was simple: nominate the true believer, mobilize the base, and the electorate expands in your favor. Arizona was supposed to be the proof of concept.

It was the exam. The primary was practice.

Hobbs raised roughly $15 million to Biggs’ $5.8 million, and the Republican Governors Association didn’t come to his aid. That tells you what the people who write checks for a living thought of the odds. They were right.

Then there is the rest of the ticket:

Attorney General: Kris Mayes beat Senate President Warren Petersen 58 to 42.
Secretary of State: Adrian Fontes beat Alex Kolodin 57 to 41.2
Governor: Hobbs by roughly 13 points, in a state Trump carried by about five and a half in 2024.

Biggs ran about even with the rest of the Republican slate. That is not a defense. The whole slate lost by double digits.

The legislature is where it gets ugly. Republicans came in leading the House 33-27 and the Senate 17-13. As of Thursday, unofficial counts had 20 Democrats and 10 Republicans in position to take Senate seats, and 37 Democrats and 23 Republicans in the House. If that holds, Republicans lose seven Senate seats and ten House seats, and Democrats get majorities in the Legislature for the first time in more than 60 years. Combined with Hobbs, that is a trifecta. Her first term was spent warring with a GOP-controlled House and Senate that sought to block her at every turn. The vetoes were the whole story. Now there is no one left to veto.

You may be thinking that “well, it was a Democratic wave. Democrats swept competitive districts across the country and took control of both chambers of Congress.” But a wave explains the direction, not the size. The model never pitched itself as weather-dependent. It claimed to move the electorate, and didn’t.

The warning was public, too. Schweikert argued all spring that Biggs was unelectable and would continue a decade of backsliding for Republicans. Primary voters heard him out and went the other way, by a wide margin.

The blame doesn’t belong to “the Republican Party,” a phrase that excuses everyone. It belongs totally to Turning Point Action, which sold a theory of winning, got the nominee it wanted, and watched a sitting governor everyone called vulnerable win by 13.

Something to remember the next time Turning Point asks for your eyeballs and your dollars.

Schweikert finished behind him and is owed a phone call.

Kolodin spent part of the campaign calling Fontes a “Sinaloa cartel lawyer.” The voters were unmoved.

]]><![CDATA[Rotting Wood]]>https://www.theduckpin.com/p/rotting-woodhttps://www.theduckpin.com/p/rotting-woodFri, 06 Nov 2026 20:17:31 GMTSubscribe now

Former Maryland Republican Party Executive Director Adam Wood sent an email this morning to Central Committee members touting his campaign for Maryland Republican Party Chairman.

Of course, several central premises of his argument are completely flawed. Even his personal history isn’t quite accurate.

Let’s take a look.

Our state party raised about 18 cents per 2024 voter this cycle, among the three lowest in the country. Even California’s party raised 53 cents.

Who was the Maryland Republican Party Executive Director during a majoriy of this period? Adam Wood was. So Adam Wood’s criticism of Adam Wood is not going to persuade people to support Adam Wood, would it?

A Republican in every race. We’ll work with each county committee to recruit, train and support a Republican for every legislative seat in 2030, and fill local and municipal races to build a bench for higher office.

Again, a job that would have been great for Adam Wood when he was Executive Director of the Maryland Republican Party in THIS election. Instead, he was too busy planning and running his own doomed State Senate bid.

Wake up dormant Republicans. We’ll send a postcard to every Maryland Republican who hasn’t voted in a decade. Returned cards push the State Board to clean up the rolls; the ones that land help bring those voters back.

Again, a job that would have been great for Adam Wood when he was Executive Director of the Maryland Republican Party in THIS election.

Modernize our committees. Every RCC member will get hands-on training in Numinar, GOP Data Center and the latest campaign tools.

Do I need to say it again?

Build a bench of professionals. We’ll develop Republican operatives and consultants who stay in the fight, which will also bring down what campaigns pay for help, with advanced trainings on AI, paid door programs, data and targeting, digital and compliance.

The absolute last thing Maryland Republicans need to do is train a new generation of Beltway Bandits who will do the work of making sure they get paid by Republican Campaigns instead of going out in the community and doing the actual work of talking to voters. Besides, if these new “operatives and consultants” are learning from a guy with Adam Wood’s track record, they won’t learn much other than how to lose.

A Chairman who dials for dollars. My strategy is simple: pick up the phone and build real relationships with donors.

AGAIN, Adam Wood was Executive Director during this period and could have assisted in this endeavor.

A professional consultant in your corner. Every county committee and Republican candidate will have a seasoned campaign professional on call, at no cost. Whatever your campaign needs, I’ve done it, and I’ll help you do it.

DISCLAIMER: Winning sold separately.

As I pointed out previously, he went 0-for-5 in Maryland races in 2026 (not even counting his own embarrassing loss), and he helped Dave Crawford to the lowest vote percentage of a Republican County Executive candidate in forty years.

Executive Director of the MDGOP (2023-2026). I played a key role in paying off more than $100,000 in party debt, jumpstarted our direct mail program with some mailers returning more than 400%, ran conventions and fundraising dinners that all turned a significant profit, built a ballot tracking and collection system from scratch, and helped establish our Election Integrity Committee.

Here’s the problem with Wood’s logic. Things were either shitty on his watch or he did great things while he was there and the party is fine. He can’t have it both ways.

I’ve been running campaigns for over two decades. I’ve managed local, Congressional and statewide races with budgets up to $1.2 million, including Nicolee Ambrose’s Congressional campaign. This cycle, I ran Sam Page’s campaign against North Carolina Senate leader Phil Berger. Outspent $12.6 million to about $80,000, we won by 2 votes. I have also directed major paid door programs for the NRSC in Georgia and Montana.

His girlfriend’s campaign was ANOTHER giant-L on Adam Wood’s scorecard. And while you may have won a singular race in North Carolina, the track record in Maryland actively sucks. I’ve managed more winning Republican races in Maryland than he has, and I haven’t taken a dollar for it.

I know how to bring in new talent. I got my start in youth politics, organizing a 15,000-student voter outreach effort for Pat Toomey’s 2010 Senate campaign.

The 15,000 Pat Toomey rally is cute, but let’s talk about Ron Paul.

https://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/kansan.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/5/9a/59a5114b-9edb-5e23-b4e3-7bc7ac8b8929/53f4414682e20.image.jpg — Adam Wood, circa 2008

Adam Wood’s entry into politics was being involved with the Ron Paul movement during the 2008 election:

Wood’s foray in campus politics first began last fall when Wood and his vice presidential running mate, Eric Hyde, Lawrence sophomore, created Students for Ron Paul, an organization that supported Paul’s presidential bid. That organization morphed into Students of Liberty.
Wood said he was trying to downplay the Ron Paul connection. The ideology might be similar, but the two groups have little in common.
“I don’t know why, but there’s kind of a knee-jerk reaction to him,” Wood said of the public’s perception of Paul.

Guess he’s still trying to downplay the Ron Paul connection.

https://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/kansan.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/4/14/414e19a7-aa50-5c28-9be6-ba2f3ef08c01/53f4415fea377.image.jpg — Adam Wood or an Eddie Vedder impersonator? You decide…

Wood’s email to the Central Committee shows the same navel-gazing lack of self-awareness as the Draft Gordana clowns. Wood has no clue how Republicans got here, takes no responsibility for his part in it, and wants to do the same things he’s already done that he’s bitching about not being done.

Bluntly, the best way Adam Wood can serve Maryland conservatives is to go back to North Carolina.

]]><![CDATA[Some Idiot Started a “Draft Gordana” Website]]>https://www.theduckpin.com/p/some-idiot-started-a-draft-gordanahttps://www.theduckpin.com/p/some-idiot-started-a-draft-gordanaThu, 05 Nov 2026 20:17:18 GMT

Former Maryland Lt. Gov. candidate Gordana Schifanelli's bid for GOP state chair is rebuffed in flare-up over filing deadline – Baltimore Sun

Share

Last night, I wrote about how sore loser Adam Wood was launching a bid for Maryland Republican Party Chairman.

Somehow, it gets worse.

Somebody is out there launching a “Draft Gordana” movement for Ma…

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Architect of Failed MDGOP Strategy Seeks to Lead MDGOP]]>https://www.theduckpin.com/p/architect-of-failed-mdgop-strategyhttps://www.theduckpin.com/p/architect-of-failed-mdgop-strategyThu, 05 Nov 2026 02:58:37 GMTSubscribe now

The ink was barely dry on the results of Tuesday’s blue tsunami when former Maryland Republican Party Executive Director Adam Wood announced his run for Maryland GOP Chairman.

In a text message to WBF…

]]><![CDATA[Red Haven's on Fire]]>https://www.theduckpin.com/p/red-havens-on-firehttps://www.theduckpin.com/p/red-havens-on-fireWed, 04 Nov 2026 23:57:10 GMT

Share

Maryland polls closed at 8 p.m. on Tuesday, and the door was barely locked before Maryland Republicans had the same cards it has held since 2022.

Dan Cox won the June Republican primary with 43.3 perc…

]]><![CDATA[Tonight, Republicans are Finding Out]]>https://www.theduckpin.com/p/tonight-republicans-are-finding-outhttps://www.theduckpin.com/p/tonight-republicans-are-finding-outWed, 04 Nov 2026 02:22:17 GMT

The polls are still open in the Mountains and the West as I write this, so now is the time to point out how much of tonight was already baked in.

Democrats have spent two years beating their baseline …

]]><![CDATA[Pilot Episode: NFG]]>https://www.theduckpin.com/p/pilot-episode-nfghttps://www.theduckpin.com/p/pilot-episode-nfgTue, 27 Oct 2026 10:03:41 GMT Read more

]]><![CDATA[The Republicans Hear The Rains of Castamere]]>https://www.theduckpin.com/p/the-republicans-hear-the-rains-ofhttps://www.theduckpin.com/p/the-republicans-hear-the-rains-ofTue, 27 Oct 2026 00:44:49 GMTSubscribe now

Share

As we approach one week out from the 2026 midterm elections, what comes to mind is a scene from "The Rains of Castamere”, Epsidoe 9 from Season 3 of Game of Thrones. You’ve probably heard of it: the Red Wedding, where the House of Lannister sends its regards to the House of Stark.

That scene comes to mind frequently when discussing the 2026 Republican chances during the midterm elections. Because Republicans are facing a reckoning.

Republicans are facing a complete bloodbath at the ballot box this year, thanks to Donald Trump’s low popularity and his insistence that he may be the centerpiece of the election. Trump’s getting exactly what he wanted, and voters are telling him to fuck all the way off. That being said, let’s take a look at some actual predictions, and let me tell you where I think the election is going to net out.

]]><![CDATA[Maryland Democrats are Lying to You About Question 3.]]>https://www.theduckpin.com/p/maryland-democrats-are-lying-to-youhttps://www.theduckpin.com/p/maryland-democrats-are-lying-to-youThu, 22 Oct 2026 00:31:55 GMTSubscribe now

Everywhere you look, the Democrats have a consistent message urging people to support Question 3.

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Trump Has Already Drawn Up the Blame List]]>https://www.theduckpin.com/p/trump-has-already-drawn-up-the-blamehttps://www.theduckpin.com/p/trump-has-already-drawn-up-the-blameMon, 19 Oct 2026 00:21:20 GMT

Subscribe now

Donald Trump is not on the November 3rd ballot, a fact he has spent the fall asking his supporters to ignore. He is nonetheless already laying the groundwork for blaming others if Republicans lose wh…

]]><![CDATA[Talking Maryland Politics and More with John Dedie]]>https://www.theduckpin.com/p/talking-maryland-politics-and-morehttps://www.theduckpin.com/p/talking-maryland-politics-and-moreThu, 15 Oct 2026 00:29:33 GMTEarlier this week, I spoke with John Dedie about Maryland State Politics, Being #NeverTrump, and the state of conservatism. I encourage you to take a look here.

John Dedie Maryland State Politics & Government

Post #437 – Interview with Brian Griffiths, conservative political media influencer and commentator

21 days ago · John Dedie

Special thanks to John for having me o…

]]><![CDATA[Brian Chisholm Misspells Key Word in New Mailer]]>https://www.theduckpin.com/p/brian-chisholm-misspells-key-wordhttps://www.theduckpin.com/p/brian-chisholm-misspells-key-wordWed, 14 Oct 2026 20:53:10 GMTDelegate Brian Chisholm sent a mailer to households today calling out Governor Wes Moore for making Maryland less affordable for its citizens.

There is only one, small, minor problem with it. Chisholm…

]]><![CDATA[The World Doesn’t Need More Playoff Games]]>https://www.theduckpin.com/p/the-world-doesnt-need-more-playoffhttps://www.theduckpin.com/p/the-world-doesnt-need-more-playoffThu, 08 Oct 2026 21:58:46 GMTThe long-rumored proposal from Major League Baseball to reduce the season and alter the playoffs has finally come.

Major League Baseball announced several proposed scheduling changes for the 2029 seas…

]]><![CDATA[Vote No on Question 3]]>https://www.theduckpin.com/p/vote-no-on-question-3https://www.theduckpin.com/p/vote-no-on-question-3Tue, 06 Oct 2026 00:37:51 GMT

If you have been following what I have written here regarding the mid-cycle redistricting, you will know exactly where I stand on the issue.

When writing about Texas last July, I wrote:

this all create…

]]><![CDATA[Donald Trump Made Socialism Palatable]]>https://www.theduckpin.com/p/donald-trump-made-socialism-palatablehttps://www.theduckpin.com/p/donald-trump-made-socialism-palatableTue, 29 Sep 2026 00:57:49 GMT

More than once, I have brought up Grover Norquist’s example that Republicans who vote for tax increases are the rat heads in the Coke Bottle.

Gallup released its annual read on Americans’ economic at…

]]><![CDATA[Predictable Outcomes]]>https://www.theduckpin.com/p/predictable-outcomeshttps://www.theduckpin.com/p/predictable-outcomesWed, 23 Sep 2026 00:22:25 GMT

State Senator Joanne Benson accidentally said the quiet part out loud yesterday:

A senior Maryland Senate Democrat who supported the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future now says the education plan is not …

]]><![CDATA[Anne Arundel Wants to Ban Food Trucks From Your Own Driveway]]>https://www.theduckpin.com/p/anne-arundel-wants-to-ban-food-truckshttps://www.theduckpin.com/p/anne-arundel-wants-to-ban-food-trucksMon, 21 Sep 2026 02:15:31 GMT

As of this writing, the County Council is set to hold a hearing tomorrow night, September 21st at 6 PM at the Arundel Center, on Bill 61-26, a 239-page rewrite of Article 18, the county’s zoning code…

]]><![CDATA[Strategy Trumps Leaders]]>https://www.theduckpin.com/p/strategy-trumps-leadershttps://www.theduckpin.com/p/strategy-trumps-leadersMon, 21 Sep 2026 00:27:50 GMT

Ravens Roundtable: reacting to Baltimore’s Week 2 loss to the Saints

There was a two-play series in Sunday’s Ravens home opener against the Saints where I knew the Ravens were in deep trouble.

Tied at 17 in the 4th quarter, the Ravens lined up at their own 37 with 8:21…

]]><![CDATA[Calamitous Predictability]]>https://www.theduckpin.com/p/calamitous-predictabilityhttps://www.theduckpin.com/p/calamitous-predictabilityTue, 15 Sep 2026 01:38:07 GMT

Being right is tiring work.

After years of telling everybody that Maryland’s Democratic budget was a house of cards that would bring painful tax hikes in the immediate future, Moore Administration le…

]]>