2021 NBA Preview: Part 2
If you missed part 1, check it out here. We continue our look into the upcoming NBA season. In the NBA, there are always just a few teams that matter and a lot of filler teams that are there to make sure the league has matchups all season for the good teams. This year is no different. So rather than break down each team, we are looking at 10 key story lines and 10 predictions. As a bonus today, I will look at a few team over/under lines to give out some tips for the season. Let’s continue our look at some key storylines.
What’s going to happen with the Nets?
The Nets made the big splash before last season, signing Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. Unfortunately, Durant was still recovering from a torn achilles, and Kyrie was injured throughout the season. This year, the team has it’s big pieces ready, and some really good role players to complement. While Durant and Kyrie are the names here, players like DeAndre Jordan, Jarrett Allen, Spencer Dinwiddie, Caris Lavert, Joe Harris and Landry Shamet provide one of the best supporting casts in basketball. This team made the playoffs last season without the big two, for the most part. So what could possibly go wrong? With this much talent, the Nets couldn’t possibly lose the East… right…? Well, they could. First, Durant and Irving’s recent injury history is very concerning. Achilles injuries at this stage of a career are often disastrous. Even the mighty Kobe (RIP) couldn’t regain his explosiveness afterward. Irving has a long history of getting hurt, having missed nearly a quarter of his career with injuries. While he is reportedly healthy now, he isn’t getting any younger. Finally, this team has so many good scorers and ball handlers, it’s unfortunate there is only one basketball in play at a time. Both Durant and Kyrie have balked in the past at the idea of sharing credit. Kyrie in particular has not made friends anywhere he has gone, and is already in mid-season form as an arrogant asshole. New head coach Steve Nash will have to assuage all these egos and get them playing team basketball without a preseason and while learning how to coach himself, as he has zero experience. All told, this should be the most interesting team of the year.
Are any of the rookies good?
This year, the NBA Draft did not have the usual amount of high end talent. Top picks like Anthony Edwards, James Wiseman and Lamelo Ball might all start the season on the bench, which is unusual for top 3 picks. So who is going to stand out from a group that is second rate at best at the top? I think there are 5 prospects who will make a major impact this season.
James Wiseman: I know I just said he will start the season on the bench, and he will. But I don’t think he will be there long. First, there aren’t really serious challengers at his position. Kevon Looney is a career backup and Marqueese Chriss is a draft bust. Second, the usual big minutes getter at the 5 is Draymond Green. While the long offseason probably helped his body, he has reached the point where he can’t play 40 minutes a game. 30 is probably the limit. This team is going to need a screen setter, rebounder and inside scoring to do what they want this season. My guess is Wiseman is starting at the 5 and getting 30 minutes a game by mid season. I believe he ends the season as a 15-10-2 player with good blocks.
Obi Toppin: I am worried that his total disregard for defense will get him into Tom Thibideau’s dog house very quickly (and he is going to struggle to stay out of foul trouble), but this team isn’t going anywhere this season (or ever). With that in mind, he will have to learn to play defense on the fly. On offense, he is going to put up good numbers as the main thing the Knicks don’t have. He is an efficient scorer. I see him as a potential 16-8-3 player by seasons end.
Devin Vassell: Vassell is the perfect Spur. He is a smart player, excellent at defense and a knock down shooter. He will start from day 1 and I think he will take over for DeMarr Derozen when DeMarr is traded mid-season (the Spurs aren’t going anywhere and he is on the last year of his contract). Once he takes over, I think he can get 15-3-3 with great percentages and great defense once he learns the league.
Tyrese Haliburton: Haliburton comes onto a team that has long struggled to play team basketball. Chronic self-indulgent scorers like DeMarcus Cousins, Buddy Hield and DeAaron Fox have held this team back in the past. With Cousin’s gone and Hield headed to the bench most likely (unless he learns team basketball), there is a huge opening for Haliburton. Haliburton’s numbers probably won’t wow you, but he is the premier glue guy on this team and in the draft. Need him to set up the offense? OK. Need him to play off ball and knock down a shot? OK. Need him to D up a tough wing? OK. Need him to keep the ball moving? OK. Guys like this are critical to a team’s success. The Warriors churn them out like an assembly line. Finally the Kings have one, and I think he will be a big success. I imagine 10-6-4 with big minutes and one of the best team +/- numbers on the Kings.
Cole Anthony: Accuse me of being a homer if you want, but he is my dark horse pick for ROY. There are a number of reasons why. First, he isn’t embarrassing on defense. That will keep him in the rotation all season. Second, the Magic have absolutely no one who can create their own shot. That is the Cole Anthony specialty. Third, he is the perfect starting complement to Markelle Fultz who is big enough to guard wings, fast enough to pressurize a defense, and a smart enough passer that Cole doesn’t have to be a major distributor. Fultz can’t shoot though. Anthony can. I see the potential of a Steve Francis here. Similar size, style and pedigree. I think he surprises everyone with an 17-5-4 line by seasons end. This team needs scoring desperately, so he will get more chances than most.
Can the Mavs play any defense?
Last year, the Mavs had a really good offense. How good? Best EVER. That’s pretty damn good. Unfortunately, they barely made the playoffs and were quickly bumped out. Obviously, this is a result of having a defense that was not good. With big man Kristaps Porzingis out for an extended period and the rugged Dwight Powell injured. This team couldn’t protect the paint, and with no good defensive options on the wing, they couldn’t slow the NBA’s best there either. The offseason trade of Seth Curry for Josh Richardson was an offense-for-defense move that should help both them and the Sixers, but is it enough? If this team ever starts playing team defense, point king Luka Doncic would become a perennial MVP contender. Until then, they will just have to settle for the most fun team in the NBA.
Is this the year for Dame Dolla to finally get in the Finals mix?
Damian Lillard is the second best pure scorer in the NBA, and a better distributor and defender than James Harden. He is consistently in the MVP mix, and last year, he found a level of scoring that was astonishing. Over a 6 game stretch, Dame averaged a smooth 48 points and 10 assists per game. Whoa. Unfortunately, this approach has lead to very limited team success, as he routinely is locked out of the Western Conference finals. This could be his year though. First, the key players are healthy. Second, the players around him are better. Jusef Nurkic is a quality big, CJ McCollum is still going strong. Carmelo is a good bench scorer. Robert Covington is the two way wing they have always needed. With a strong starting lineup in place, this team is finally a serious contender. Can Dame get everyone on the same page and involved? It’s not a one man show anymore.
Who is getting the number 1 pick in next year’s draft?
Next year’s draft should have a lot more talent at the top, which could lead to some ugly performances down the stretch from some teams. I would identify the following teams as most likely to nail down that number one pick.
Cleveland: This team is an amalgamation of mismatched parts. There are vets that are past their prime, and young players who have no idea how to play basketball and win. That is a bad combination. I think the vets will be out the door by mid-season, and the young guys will still be jacking up bad shots, playing turnstile defense and feuding over usage.
Detroit: Detroit has wisely rid itself of the veterans it can, although the ghost of Blake Griffen is still there. Their best hope is that Griffen plays well for the first half of the season so someone will gamble on him. Unfortunately his contract is a non-starter for most, and he will probably get hurt. That leaves an army of young players and overpaid midlevel vets to fight for minutes, shots and relevance.
New York: The Knicks still do not have good players. Every year they keep singing mediocre players to short term contracts, hoping that they will catch a whale the next offseason. The problem is no one wants to be James Dolan’s Moby Dick. This team will continue to be a mess till Dolan sells it.
Minnesota: The Wolves have one of the best offensive players in the NBA in Karl Anthony-Towns and a talented offensive roster with pieces like DeAngelo Russell, Malik Beasley, Ricky Rubio, and young players Anthony Edwards/Jarret Culver. So how can they be on this list? The West is how. Look at the teams out West and you see a murderers row of contenders. Someone out west is going to lose a lot, and I think it will be the Wolves because their defense is awful.
Washington: Speaking of teams with no defense, the Wizards set all sorts of bad team marks in defensive inefficiency, and the addition of renowned gambler and loose cannon Russell Westbrook is not going to help. If Russ gets hurt, this team is headed to a dark place that might include a Bradley Beal trade.
5 more predications:
The team with the biggest improvement is the Golden State Warriors
The team with the biggest drop off is the Houston Rockets
The surprise playoff team no one sees coming is the Chicago Bulls
The surprise team that misses the playoffs is the Rockets
The Nets make it to the second round, but flame out.
Teams I think will be over their 2021 expected win totals
1. Toronto Raptors - 41. Their defense and continuity are very important for the pandemic shortened season.
2. Chicago Bulls - 30: These players have been together for a while now, but for the first time they have a competent coach in Billy Donovan. Injuries crushed this team last year. In a weak conference, someone will succeed.
3. Portland Trail Blazers - 40.5. This team is better this year, with better players and a singular focus. Also, they were gutted by injuries last year. With better luck, 40.5 should be the floor.
Honorable mention: OKC, Indiana, PHX.
Teams I think will go under their 2021 expected win totals
1. Houston Rockets - 40.5: This team is bottoming out fast. There is no guarantee Harden plays out the year here, and the pieces that have come back for what has been moved out are scary. This team also plays in the brutal West.
2. Los Angeles Clippers - 47: This team is only interested in the playoffs, and they will certainly rest Kawhi and Paul George quite a bit. Beyond that, the team didn’t get better this offseason, it just got older. And the chemistry is still poor. Did I mention the West will be brutal?
3. Brooklyn Nets - 45: I actually like this team overall (especially their team depth) and think they will easily make the playoffs. With that said, Kyrie and Durant will need days off, they will take time to gel, and they will have a target on their back every night from the opposing team to the media. I think they take a bit to get going.
Dishonorable mention: Milwaukee, Washington, Minnesota