After Season on the Brink – A Closing Saturday to Remember

Counting down final weekend’s biggest college football games…

One of my goals for starting this column was conveying my love of college football with all its to fellow passionate fans but also to help a more casual sports fan understand and appreciate it’s uniqueness, unpredictability and pageantry. The pageantry – as we’ve come to know it – in college football has been considerably less in this COVID19-ravaged, bizarre season. However, I’m profoundly thankful to the players, coaches and administrations, as well as government entities, that we had a season to celebrate.

We’ve arrived at the final weekend of the season – set aside as “Championship Weekend” when all the conference championship games were to be played. It’s taking place three weeks later than normal so it is a few days after early signing day for recruits (a BIG deal in the college football world) and the hiring/firing season of coaches is in full swing. The AAC, ACC, Big 10, Big 12, CUSA, MAC, PAC 12, SEC and Sun Belt Championship games will be joined this weekend by makeup conference games between non-championship game participants.

Winning your conference championship for most teams is the conclusion of either a dream season (as would be the case for Big 10 West winner Northwestern, or Iowa State, in the Big 12 as they’ve not won a conference title of any kind since 1912) or the culmination of what’s expected of them (Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio State).

Starting on Friday night there will be a feast for the senses for anyone who loves college football – or frankly wants to spend watch a lot of it for the first time. I’m going to rank them by day and in order of significance to the playoff race – not necessarily how good the game will be – although with one or two exceptions that will generally correspond.

Friday Night:

3. MAC Championship – Buffalo vs. Ball State – Ford Field, Detroit (7:30 EST ESPN): Could this be the swan song for Buffalo Coach Lance Leipold who’s turned the Bulls into a top program in the Mid-American? He’s a hot candidate at Illinois and perhaps other places. Should be an entertaining high scoring game but not a ton of national significance.

2. Conference USA Championship – Marshall vs. UAB – Joan C. Edward Stadium, Huntingtown, WV (7:00 EST CBSSN): This game lost a little bit of its luster when Marshall was upset by Rice a couple weeks ago to break their undefeated streak but it’s two tough, physical defensive teams with UAB looking to regain the CUSA Championship after winning it in 2018 and then losing in this game last year to Florida Atlantic.

1. PAC 12 Championship Game – Oregon vs. USC – Memorial Coleseum, Los Angeles (8:00 EST FOX): This was set up to be even more important before PAC 12 North winner Washington couldn’t play because of COVID 19 issues and the PAC 12 decided to substitute runner up Oregon (who just lost to Washington) as the representative. The USC Trojans are coming off another emotional come-from-behind win, this time over their arch-rivals the UCLA Bruins. They are undefeated (albeit at only 5-0) and have an outside (VERY outside) shot at the playoff but the winner hear probably goes to the Fiesta Bowl and gets a jumpstart into next year. In my opinion, the PAC 12 should have put Colorado in this game as they finished a game behind USC in the PAC 12 South but had their game against each other cancelled…by USC!

Other:
Nebraska vs. Rutgers (Rutgers Stadium, Piscataway, NJ 7:30 EST BTN)

Saturday:

7. #19 Louisiana vs. #13 Coastal Carolina – Sun Belt Championship (Brooks Stadium, Myrtle Beach, SC 3:30 ESPN): Coastal should be rated higher in a year when the Sun Belt is really good AND was the only G5 league to have a significant non-conference side by side (Sun Belt teams played and largely beat Big 12 teams to start the year including Iowa State, Kansas State and Texas Tech). Coastal also had a huge win over an undefeated BYU two weeks ago. If Coastal wins, they will likely get into a New Year’s 6 bowl (Orange, Fiesta, Cotton). Louisiana winning is a little less likely for that but still possible. Neither team has a chance at the playoff however.

6. #10 Oklahoma vs. #6 Iowa State – Big 12 Championship (AT&T Stadium, Dallas Noon EST ABC): Iowa State as mentioned above is looking for their first conference title of any kind in 108 years. Oklahoma after a rocky start to the season has righted the ship and is (strangely to those who’ve watched Oklahoma in past years) playing pretty good defense. I love rooting for downtrodden teams in spots like this but don’t agree that Iowa State should be ranked ahead of Cincinnati or Coastal Carolina after losing to Louisiana to start the season at home. Still a win by either team and chaos “COULD” give them a shot at the playoff but it’s maybe a 1% chance. (“So you’re saying there’s a CHANCE!”)

5. #23 Tulsa vs. #9 Cincinnati American Athletic Conference Championship (Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH 8:00 EST ABC): This is where this game SHOULD be as far as the national conversation. I think it’s a joke that Cincinnati has fallen from 6/7 to 9 behind Iowa State and that Florida only dropped to #7 after getting beaten at home by then-3-5 Florida. Some would say that the Iowa State- Oklahoma game is more important to the playoff since they are ranked ahead but I think a convincing win over Tulsa would move Cincinnati in position if chaos struck (meaning Clemson, Ohio State and Texas A&M all probably have to lose). Meanwhile – Tulsa has had a surprisingly wonderful season – an upset here would really be the cherry on top.

4. #5 Texas A&M vs. Tennessee (Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN Noon ESPN): This rescheduled regular season game is this high on the list because the Aggies need to win and win in a blowout and hope for chaose above them (like Ohio State or Clemson losing. They also need Alabama to beat Florida – but it wouldn’t hurt if it was close. A&M should win this game but how impressive will they look? Meanwhile, there’s a more than 10% but less than 50% chance that a bad loss here gets Tennessee coach Jeremy Pruitt fired. We’ll see. I frankly think A&M probably deserves a playoff shot over Ohio State even if the Buckeyes win but I think that’s unlikely.

3. #1 Alabama vs. #7 Florida SEC Championship (Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA 8:00 EST CBS): If Florida had not lost to LSU last weekend, this would have been #2 or possibly even tied for 1. However, with two losses it SEEMS unlikely that the Gators could get in even with a win over Alabama. The Playoff Committee should have probably docked them further than 7th…that’s the only thing giving the Gators a glimmer of hope here but they’d have to beat the Tide and probably without anything fluky. Meanwhile, if Alabama wins, they are the #1 seed for the playoff. Even if they lose, especially if it’s a close loss, they will be in.

2. #4 Ohio State vs. #14 Northwestern Big 10 Championship (Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN Noon EST FOX): For Ohio State, the Big 10 had to waive their previous arbritrary rule about a team needing to play six games to be in the conference title game. So Ohio State is 5-0 playing 5-1 Northwestern. The Wildcats are a throwback ground and pound (and short pass and pound) offense and tough, physical defense. However they do not have the kind of speed needed to match up with the Buckeyes for four quarters. I think, even if they won, that one loss Northwestern, with only 6 wins, has no path for the playoff unless Clemson, Texas A&M, and Cincinatti all lose and Alabama would need to beat Florida…but I guess you never know. The thing to watch here is more whether or not Ohio State can win very convincingly so they don’t have to worry about the playoff committee doing math on how many more games and solid wins Texas A&M has. Beating Northwestern would give Ohio State a second top 15 win that they desperately need (the other was Indiana…it’s been a strange year!)

1. #2 Notre Dame vs. #3 Clemson ACC Championship (Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC  4:00 EST ABC): This is the ultimate knife-edge game. It seems likely that, unless it’s some kind of embarrassing blowout, Notre Dame will be in the playoff even if they lose. I’d say it’s about as certain as Alabama being in with a loss. Clemson needs to win – if they do they are in. Lose and it may not be over but that would depend on other things happening around country – they probably can’t afford a loss here. Should be a hotly contested matchup, may have some big swings as well. Easily the biggest and best game of the day, and perhaps the year, in college football.

Best of the Rest:

San Jose State vs. #24 Boise State Mountain West Championship (Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas 4:15 PM FOX): San Jose State unexpectedly undefeated at 5-0 while Boise tries to continue MWC dominance. No playoff implications which is why it’s in “the rest” but should be a great game.

Ole Miss vs. LSU (LSU beating Florida last week adds some luster as they have a shot at a .500 record now – Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin are always fun and this IS a rivalry game. Big for Ole Miss recruiting if they can win).

Air Force vs. Army: Playing for the Commander-in-Chief Trophy.

Minnesota vs. Wisconsin: Classic Big 10 rivalry that got postponed earlier in season, they play for Paul Bunyan’s Axe.

Stanford vs. UCLA: Stanford experiencing a re-establishing year, UCLA – despite tough loss to USC last week – seems to be turning corner and play an entertaining brand of football)

The Rest of the Rest:

Michigan State vs. Maryland: Two rebuilding teams finishing out the string – although a win for Maryland probably means a bowl game.

Illinois vs. Penn State: Team with fired coach versus team finishing worst season in memory.

Missouri vs. Mississippi State: Tigers try to close out an unexpectedly better season with a win to get the Georgia blowout out of their mouths. Leach has not seemed to be having much fun.