America is in Trouble
An aging population means trouble ahead. What are we going to do about it?
Earlier today I wrote about how The Kids Aren’t Alright. Well, we’ve got a bigger problem as a country than even that.
The Census Bureau in that charge says that in eleven years, it is projected that there will be more adults over the age of 65 than children under the age of 18.
The problems with that number are obvious and real. With so many people living longer, that means that the pressures on the Social Security system are going to become stronger and stronger. There will be more and more money needed by the Federal Government to pay for Social Security, to pay for Medicaid, and to pay for the other social services that are currently offered to older Americans at every level of government.
This assumes of course that there is not a much-needed course correction on Social Security and the various other programs that currently cover those over the age of 65.
The problem of course is that once that gap is breached, it is almost impossible to close it. The Census projections suggest that by 2060 there will be 14 million more older Americans than younger Americans. The number of older Americans will have practically doubled in 44 years.
If you want to know what an aging population can do to a country, let me direct you to Japan:
From the 1980s onwards, there has been an increase in older-age workers and a shortage of young workers in Japan's workforce, owing to factors such as Japanese employment practices and the professional participation of women. The U.S. Census Bureau estimated in 2002 that Japan would experience an 18% decrease of young workers in its workforce and an 8% decrease in its consumer population by 2030. The Japanese labor market is currently under pressure to meet demands for workers, with 125 jobs for every 100 job seekers at the end of 2015, as older generations retire and younger professionals become fewer.[60]
Japan made a radical change the regulation of its healthcare system by introducing long-term-care insurance in 2000.[3] The government has also invested in medical technologies such as regenerative medicines and cell therapy to recruit and retain more of the older population into the workforce.[3] A range of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have also pioneered new practices for retaining workers beyond mandatory retirement ages, such as through workplace improvements as well as job tasks specifically created for older workers.[61]
Mounting labor shortages in the 1980s and 90s led many Japanese companies to increase the mandatory retirement age from 55 to 60 or 65, and many today allow their employees to continue working after retirement. The increasing retirement age has put a strain on the national pension system. In 1986, the government increased the age at which pension benefits begin from 60 to 65, and shortfalls in the pension system have driven many people of retirement age to remain in the workforce, with some elderly individuals being driven into poverty.[57]
The retirement age may go even higher in the future if the proportion of the elderly increases. A study by the UN Population Division in 2000 found that Japan would need to raise its retirement age to 77 (or allow net immigration of 17 million by 2050) to maintain its worker-to-retiree ratio.[62][63] Consistent immigration into Japan may prevent further population decline, and many academics have argued for Japan to develop policies to support large influxes of young immigrants.[64][4]
Less desirable industries, such as agriculture and construction, face the most severe threats. The average farmer in Japan is 70 years old;[65] while about a third of construction workers are 55 or older, including many expected to retire in the next ten years, only one in ten are younger than 30.[66][67] The decline in the working population has also caused the nation's military to shrink.[3]
The decline in working-aged cohorts may lead to a shrinking economy if productivity does not increase faster than the rate of Japan's decreasing workforce.[68] The OECD estimates that similar labor shortages in Austria, Germany, Greece, Italy, Spain, and Sweden will depress the European Union's economic growth by 0.4 percentage points annually from 2000 to 2025, after which shortages will cost the EU 0.9 percentage points in growth. In Japan, labor shortages will lower growth by 0.7% annually until 2025, after which Japan will experience an annual 0.9% loss in growth.[69]
So think about this: we live in a country that has a significant social safety net, particularly for older Americans. The social safety net is funded by taxes, both from the Social Security tax and the income tax. Those taxes are paid by working-age Americans, generally ages 18-62. Older people are living longer. Women of child-bearing age are having fewer kids. A percentage of the population is sterilizing themselves to “change” their gender.
There are a multitude of excuses that people have given for not having kids. Some do it because of “global warming.” So do it in the name of population control. Some people because of…..well, this.
Now there are perfectly valid reasons for not having children, including physical limitations on procreation. But for the most part, people just aren’t having kids anymore. And it’s causing a massive problem.
It also important to note here that over 65,000,000 children have not been born in the United States since the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision. Yes, legal abortion and readily available aborton is one of the causes of this demographic crisis.
How does the United States overcome this problem? There are a few ways to do it, all of which should be considered and honestly passed:
Create additional tax incentives to encourage childbirth;
A Constitutional Amendment protecting life;
An adjustment of Social Security benefits;
Allowing working individuals to create private Social Security accounts to privatize benefits for future retirees;
Create a Universal Basic Income account at birth for each American child that would accrue interest and could not be accessed until the individual retired;
Encourage legal immigration, particularly for those of childbearing age.
This would allow for a gradual phasing out of Social Security, would encourage childbirth, and would create a younger workforce to ensure the stability of the economy.
Without significant changes, what will America become? A top heavy welfare state with a stagnant economy and a lower standard of living for future generations. We become Europe or Japan.
Our country is in trouble. What are we going to do about it is the big question…..