April 2023 GOP Presidential Power Rankings
The only list in the world where a 34-count indictment makes your victory more likely...
Welcome to the latest installment of The Duckpin Republican Presidential Power Rankings. These rankings will list, in my estimation, the contenders for the Republican nomination for President on a 1……12(!) scale. This list will be updated every month; maybe more once we get to later in the year.
The rankings are a combination of polls, data, political environment, and gut feelings. It is not necessarily a ranking in order of who I think should be the Republican nominee, but who is best positioned to win the nomination at that time. Think of it as a snapshot in time.
The big question right now? Can both Trump and DeSantis lose? Some think it’s possible, though I’m pretty sure one of them will be the winner.
#12: Gov. Doug Burgum (ND) (Previous: NR)
Fun fact: I couldn’t have told you the name of the Governor of North Dakota until I read this.
#11: Gov. Glenn Youngkin (VA) (Previous: 3)
Youngkin takes a huge drop on this list because a lot of Youngkin’s people just decamped for the DeSantis campaign. Never say never, but it’s not looking like he’s gonna run.
#10: Former National Security Adviser John Bolton (MD) (Previous: 9)
John Bolton would possibly be one of the worst on-the-stump candidates for President in a long time. I am also reasonably convinced that he would be better at addressing our national security interests than
#9: Former Gov. Asa Hutchinson (AK) (Previous: NR)
Hutchinson is back. He is eminently qualified to be President. But he may not be prepared for this new age of politics, as Ari Fleischer sums up. After all, Hutchinson hasn’t had to run a tough race since he lost to Mike Beebe in 2006.
#8: Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (KS) (Previous: 8)
Pompeo has already been in Iowa. His work with Donald Trump and the surrender of Afghanistan to the Taliban is going to do him no favors. Neither will the age-old trick of buying a lot of books so your book seems popular.
#7: Vivek Ramaswamy (OH): (Previous: 5)
I’ll be honest, I had absolutely no idea who the hell this guy was until he started talking about a run and ultimately announced. I still don’t know very much except he is a billionaire, is against “wokeism” and the ESG framework. It’s the part where he is a billionaire where, in the modern social media driven political market, can take him from being a nobody into being a contender. Though billionaires from Morry Taylor to Michael Bloomberg have run for President with no success. Ramaswamy seems like a guy who wants to drive the conversation more so than somebody with delusions of actually winning.
#6: Former Gov. Chris Christie (NJ) (Previous: 6)
He’s attacking Ron DeSantis. He’s attacking Donald Trump. He went to Texas to meet with donors. He’s running. But considering that Christie 1. Missed his chance in 2012 and 2. got shellacked in his 2016 campaign, will anybody care? He’s was recently in New Hampshire starting to rehab his name. He’s attacking Trump, at least. He can govern. But can he win? Unlikely.
#5. Sen. Tim Scott (SC) (Previous: 7)
Tim Scott was in Iowa recently so that tells you that he’s at least kicking the tires on this. He was a Republican I could get behind before he became a little too close to Trump’s orbit. But he is a formidable challenger IF he can sufficiently differentiate himself from fellow South Carolinian Nikki Haley. We’ve seen this movie before, and the Jeb Bush/Marco Rubio Florida dynamic helped Donald Trump. But Senate Republicans like him and he’s building infrastructure. Don’t count him out.
#4: Former Governor Nikki Haley (SC): (Previous: 4)
Is her campaign still a thing? Because I have not heard very much from it or about it since she announced her candidacy.
#3: Ex-President Donald Trump (FL) (Previous: 10)
I still can’t believe we’re talking about this knucklehead, but he’s running so he has a puncher’s chance if the GOP really wants to commit suicide. That Trump’s recent indictment helps him in the primary shows how dumb this race will be.
#2: Former Vice President Mike Pence (IN) (Previous: 2)
That he is stating the obvious on his book tour tells us that Pence is going to run.
#1: Gov. Ron DeSantis (FL) (Previous: 1)
Ron DeSantis will remain the frontrunner until somebody shows they can compete with him. That Trump is already attacking DeSantis tells you everything you need to know about the pecking order at this stage of the race. And the fact that DeSantis feels plenty comfortable blowing off CPAC speaks volumes of DeSantis campaign’s position and the degradation in the quality of CPAC.
All that being said, this is a Beta Male move by DeSatis kowtowing to the wishes of his now-indicted primary opponent.
Dropped Out: Kari Lake (#11)