Cause and Effect

The American electorate is becoming more conservative again..It is no small way done by how hard Democrats are pushing radical reform both politically and culturally.

Want to know what happens after decades of prioritizing the wants of the few over the needs of the many? You get this.

Thirty-eight percent of Americans now identify as “very conservative” or “conservative” on social issues, a level unseen since 2012, according to a new Gallup poll.

The percentage of Americans saying they have “very liberal” or “liberal” views on social issues has fallen from 34 percent to 29 percent in the last two years. Thirty-one percent of Americans identified their views on social issues as “moderate.”

Republicans had the largest shift toward social conservatism, with 74 percent saying their social views are conservative, a 14-point increase from 2021. Twenty-nine percent of independents said the same, up from 24 percent two years ago. Just ten percent of Democrats said they have conservative social views, a figure that remained unchanged from 2021 to 2023.

The biggest increases in social conservative ideology have been among middle-aged adults, Gallup found. In 2023, 35 percent of Americans ages 30 to 49 said they were “very conservative” or “conservative” on social issues, up 13 points from 22 percent in 2021. There was also a double-digit bump among Americans ages 50 to 64 — 46 percent now say they are “very conservative” or “conservative” on social issues, up 11 points from 35 percent in 2021.

Among those social issues is the question of whether transgender athletes should only be allowed to play on sports teams that match their biological sex. The poll found 69 percent of Americans believe transgender athletes should be limited to participating on teams that match their biological sex, compared to 62 percent who said the same in 2021.

Just 26 percent of Americans believe transgender athletes should be allowed to play on teams that match their preferred gender identity, a seven point drop from 2021.

The flip from very conservative having a plurality over very liberal has been flipping back and forth for a few years now, ever since Donald Trump became the face of the Republican Party.

As Gallup writes in their summary:

For most of the past eight years, Americans were about as likely to say they were liberal as conservative on social issues. This year, there is a more obvious conservative advantage. The shift is mostly due to increasing social conservatism among Republicans, at a time when social issues such as transgender rights, abortion and other hot-button concerns are prominent in the national public debate.

Greater social conservatism may be fostering an environment more favorable to passing conservative-leaning social legislation, especially in Republican-dominated states. Indeed, in the past year, many Republican states have passed stricter constraints on abortions, limited choices for transgender youth in sports participation and healthcare, and placed prohibitions on what topics can be discussed in classroom settings.

For years, Democrats have been pushing expanded LBGTQ prominence, transgender rights, and abortion as the issues that will dominate the political agenda. They have always assumed that by focusing on these issues, they will get an advantage over Republican candidates at the ballot box.

This poll shows that may not exactly be the case.

The challenge that Republicans are going to face in 2024 (and beyond) will be the same as it was in 2022: making sure to nominate candidates that are electable. Republicans left gubernatorial seats on the table in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts and Michigan and Senate Seats in Arizona, Georgia, and Oregon on the table by nominating bad candidates with no chance of winning.

With Donald Trump leading the way in the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary, and bad Senate candidates lining up in Arizona, Montana, Ohio and West Virginia, it looks like that lesson will be tough for Republicans to put into place.

It is clear though that American voters are returning to the norm and are becoming more traditionally conservative. It is no small way done by how hard Democrats are pushing radical reform both politically and culturally. The Cause and Effect nature of this is palpable