How John McCain Ruined Everything

Yes, everything goes back to one decision John McCain made

In every presidential election, there are moments that look small at the time but end up reshaping the political landscape for decades.

One of the most consequential of these came on August 29, 2008, when John McCain introduced Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. The pick electrified the Republican base (including me, who had suggested McCain pick Palin six months before he actually did), delighted conservative media, horrified party strategists, and ultimately changed the trajectory of the Republican Party in ways nobody could have predicted.

But what if McCain had gone with his original instinct? What if he had chosen Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty and skipped the Palin gamble entirely?

It’s a deceptively simple switch, but in many ways, it may be one of the most important “near misses” in modern American politics. A McCain–Pawlenty ticket doesn’t win the 2008 election, but it creates a very different political climate in the 2010s. Without Palin’s media phenomenon, populist conservatism develops far more slowly. The Tea Party takes a different shape. And Donald Trump’s rise becomes far less likely.