I Still Don't Understand the Grayson Rodriguez Trade

Or: "Didn't We have Taylor Ward at Home?"

I saw the headline this morning that the Orioles had made a trade, I was excited to know that Orioles President Mike Elias was not waiting until deep into the offseason to start making moves.

Until I saw the trade.

Trading Grayson Rodriguez for Taylor Ward is the kind of trade that I just cannot wrap my head around. Not necessarily for the reasons you may think.

The idea of trading Grayson Rodriguez actually makes some sense when you think about it. By opening day, Rodriguez will have gone more than 18 months without pitching in a major league game. In 43 career starts, he has been a good but not great starting pitching. Injuries seemingly limited Rodriguez from living up to the hype that came with being the 11th overall pick. He was certainly pitching better with the more experience he got.

The problem with Rodriguez is that his health remains a question. He was expected to be ready for Opening Day 2025. He wasn’t. He was supposed to then be ready by the second half. He wasn’t. At some point, you can’t wait for a pitcher to find themselves. Even if he does have four years of team control left, the Orioles need pitching NOW and if Rodriguez can’t be that guy, it’s time to find somebody who can. Especially when you remember that Rodriguez was the last 1st round draft pick taken by the last regime; he was not an Elias guy.

The inexplicable part of trading Rodriguez is getting Ward back for him. He’s entering his age 32 season in 2026, his last year before free agency, and is coming off arguably the best year of his career. Except when you look at his stat line, you notice something.

Steve Melewski writes:

Ward ranked in the top 16 percent of the majors in 2025 for barrel percentage at 13.7 and also ranked well in chase rate, was middle of the pack in hard-hit rate, but rated low in bat speed. On defense he was in the average range for Outs Above Average and arm strength. His sprint speed was a bit below average.

If you start thinking to yourself “but we have Taylor Ward at home”, well that’s because we do. Except he's Tyler O’Neill.

Ward even shows up as a “Similar Player” to O’Neill on his BR page!

At least Ward seems to avoid injuries more so than O’Neill does.

So now the Orioles have two guys who are roughly 6 foot tall, 200 pound right-handed power hitters in their thirties, neither of whom hit for a high average or get on base exceptionally often. And Ward could leave at the end of 2026 as a free agent. They now enter a crowded Orioles outfield that has these potential candidates:

• Dylan Beavers

• Enrique Bradfield

• Colton Cowser

• Jud Fabian

• Hudson Haskin

• Jeremiah Jackson

• Heston Kjerstad

• Taylor Ward

And that doesn’t even take into account the rumors that the Orioles are interested in Cubs star outfielder Kyle Tucker.

Dealing Rodriguez still doesn’t fix the biggest Orioles problem: pitching. The O’s rotation still currently is some combination of Kyle Bradish, Tyler Rogers, Dean Kramer, and vibes. Where are the other 65 starts coming from? Tyler Wells? Cam Weston? Roansy Contreras? Cade Povich? A free agent? Who knows, but trading Rodriguez eliminates a potential solution, even if his health was questionable.

In a perfect world, this sets up Tyler O’Neill to be traded and the Orioles signing a free agent pitcher. Seeing will be believing in that regard, but Elias is not waiting around to make a move. Even if you and I may not actually understand it.