January 2024 Maryland U.S. Senate Power Rankings

Well, it’s time for a new Power Rankings. Between now and the Maryland Primary in May, we will be ranking the announced and potential candidates for U.S. Senate in order of the likelihood of their election next November.

The rankings are a combination of polls, data, political environment, and gut feelings. It is not necessarily a ranking in order of who I think should be the winner, but who is best positioned to win the election at that time. Think of it as a snapshot in time.

We skipped a month because nothing is happening. Some very interesting things have, in fact, happened.

#9: John Thormann AND Lorie Friend (D) (Previous: #NR)
Thormann and Friend are only here because they ran in 2022 so might have the faintest hint of name recognition. Of course, both finished behind Chris Chafee, so what does that tell you? At least they beat James Tarantin and his fakakta campaign.

#8: Brian Frydenborg (D) (Previous: #10)
One of Frydenborg’s topics of interest is “How to defend the practical and results-oriented Democratic Party from far-left extremists that want to hijack it and put all that has been accomplished at risk.” He’s barking up the wrong primary voter tree with that in Maryland…..

#7: Jerome Seagal (D) (Previous: #9)
This is now Segal’s sixth run for political office if you count his abandoned plan to run for the Democratic Party Presidential nomination against Joe Biden for 2024. Segal’s run for U.S. Senate will ultimately end up just as pointless as all his other runs for office

#6: Robin Ficker (R) (Previous: #8)
He still doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of winning, of course, but the ad is better than his usual body of work.

#5: Delegate Jon Cardin (D) (Previous: #6)
Sure, why not take a shot at your uncle’s Senate Seat as he’s retiring right? Cardin ran a widely-panned run for Attorney General in 2014 that netted him only 30% of the vote in a three-way race. That might be enough to sneak through a Democratic primary if he gets in and muddles the field up. Cardin is probably best known for his stunt involving the misuse of Baltimore City Police Resources during his 2009 marriage proposal.

#4: Former Congressman John Delaney (D) (Previous: #4)
John Delaney was last seen making a quixotic run for President in 2020 that didn’t get very far. Delaney has, mostly, been out of the game since he dropped out of that race. With his wife running for his old House seat, I can’t imagine both Delaneys would seek to run this year.

#3: John Teichert (R) (Previous: 3)
A credible Republican has emerged to run for U.S. Senate who is not a candidate who has failed multiple times, been disbarred, or an admitted abuser. John Teicher is a retired Air Force General and combat pilot who announced recently and is running on a credible platform of fixing education, inflation, crime, and by standing up to China. Teichert is the exact kind of candidate who can be successful in Maryland, though he will be no doubt hamstrung by the top of the ticket at the Presidential level as Maryland Republicans so often are. He’s also picking up endorsements that would carry some weight in a general election, like former Lt. Governor Boyd Rutherford.

#1: Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) (Previous: #1) AND Congressman David Trone (D) (Previous: #2)
I’ve been saying “As long as she doesn’t snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, Angela Alsobrooks is going to be a United States Senator.” She has been looking less and less inevitable every day, leading up to a campaign shakeup that sacked her campaign staff. Comfortable frontrunners don’t do that. That Trone is continuing to carpet-bomb local airwaves with TV commercials

Dropped Out: #5 Juan Dominguez (dropped out to run for the 3rd District House Seat); # 7 Mosher Landman (dropped out to run for the 6th District House Seat)