Well, it’s time for a new Power Rankings. Between now and the Maryland Primary next April, we will be ranking the announced and potential candidates for U.S. Senate in order of the likelihood of their election next November.
The rankings are a combination of polls, data, political environment, and gut feelings. It is not necessarily a ranking in order of who I think should be the winner, but who is best positioned to win the election at that time. Think of it as a snapshot in time.
#10: Token Republican Nominee (R) (Previous: #10)
The best outcome for Republicans, frankly, is to nominate this candidate. After Dan Cox was nominated statewide, it’s the only way to avoid whatever embarrassment the likely choice of Republican voters is. And given the announced candidates so far? Yikes.
#9: Steven Seuferer (D) (Previous: #9)
Still have no idea who this guy is.
#8: Moshe Landman (G) (Previous: #8)
The only bright side for Mr. Landman is that he’ll make it to the general election ballot, which is more than I can say for most people on this list.
#7: Jerome Seagal (D) (Previous: #7)
This is now Segal’s sixth run for political office if you count his abandoned plan to run for the Democratic Party Presidential nomination against Joe Biden for 2024. Segal’s run for U.S. Senate will ultimately end up just as pointless as all his other runs for office
#6: Juan Dominguez (D) (Previous: #NR)
A new Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate who, according to his website, “is a proud graduate of The United States Military Academy at West Point (‘89) and is a Gulf War Veteran.” His campaign is highlighting China, Crypto, Big Tech, and Israel as the biggest issues. That probably won’t go far in today’s Maryland Democratic Party.
#5: Former Congressman John Delaney (D) (Previous: #6)
John Delaney was last seen making a quixotic run for President in 2020 that didn’t get very far. Delaney has, mostly, been out of the game since he dropped out of that race. With his wife considering a run for his old House seat, I can’t imagine both Delaneys would seek to run this year.’
#4: Montgomery County Councilman Will Jawondo (D) (Previous: #5)
The likelihood that a County Councilman is going to make the jump to U.S. Senate is slim and none. Jawondo first ran for Congress in 2016 before getting elected to the County Council the following cycle. My guess is that Jawondo is waiting to see what Jamie Raskin does and if Raskin runs for the Senate, Jawondo will switch back to run for Raskin’s seat.
#3: Congressman Jamie Raskin (D) (Previous: #4)
Jamie Raskin has had an eventful and traumatic two years. From the loss of his son to his defeating cancer, Raskin has had a lot of personal challenges on his plate. I doubt those will enter too much into his thinking, but I’m not sure that another D.C. area candidate is going to get very far. We’ll know by July 4th, by which Raskin says he will have made his decision.
#2: Congressman David Trone (D) (Previous: #4)
Troune announced his candidacy the day after Ben Cardin announced his retirement, and the crowd went mild. There is no doubt that Trone will spend millions in order to buy the seat win the campaign, telling some associates he is prepared to spend up to $50 million. While that is all well and good, can Trone create enough enthusiasm among the Democratic base to win the nomination? It’s not likely, but he is making the rounds of the rubber chicken circuit and campaigning in person with Democratic activists.
#1: Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) (Previous: #4)
The second Alsobrooks announced her candidacy, she became the nominee. She would have been the likely frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for Governor. Instead, Alsobrooks passed on the race and endorsed Wes Moore. For that, Moore and his political apparatus really owe Alsobrooks a lot. Not a coincidence that Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski passed on the race and endorsed Alsobrooks for that reason. With the Washington area suburbs playing an ever-growing role in Democratic primary politics and with the election occurring during a Presidential election year, Alsobrooks will likely remain the overwhelming favorite unless her campaign really, really drops the ball.
Dropped out: Johnny Olszewski (#3; endorsed Angela Alsobrooks)