Welcome to the latest installment of The Duckpin Republican Presidential Power Rankings. These rankings will list, in my estimation, the contenders for the Republican nomination for President on a 1……11(!) scale. This list will be updated every month; maybe more once we get to later in the year.
The rankings are a combination of polls, data, political environment, and gut feelings. It is not necessarily a ranking in order of who I think should be the Republican nominee, but who is best positioned to win the nomination at that time. Think of it as a snapshot in time.
Yes, you read that correctly. Because the GOP wants to make the same mistakes it did in 2016, the numbers now go to 11. And we haven’t even gotten to the Perry Johnsons, Steve Laffeys, Rollan Roberts II’s, or Corey Stapeltons of the world yet.1
#11: Kari Lake (AZ): (Previous: NR)
I can’t believe that this is a real sentence that I am typing, but Kari Lake went to Iowa. She’s headlining the Ronald Reagan Dinner at CPAC this year. For some asinine reason, the leftists calling themselves conservatives these days love her. Is she running? Probably not, especially if Donald Trump runs. But it’s a stupid time to be alive so who knows.
#10: Ex-President Donald Trump (FL) (Previous: 10)
I still can’t believe we’re talking about this knucklehead, but he’s running so he has a puncher’s chance if the GOP really wants to commit suicide.
#9: Former National Security Adviser John Bolton (MD) (Previous: NR)
John Bolton would possibly be one of the worst on-the-stump candidates for President in a long time. I am also reasonably convinced that he would be better at addressing our national security interests than most on this list. And that he would tear Trump up over his Russia obsession.
#8: Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (KS) (Previous: 7)
Pompeo has already been in Iowa. His work with Donald Trump and the surrender of Afghanistan to the Taliban is going to do him no favors. Neither will the age-old trick of buying a lot of books so your book seems popular.
#7. Sen. Tim Scott (SC) (Previous: 8)
Tim Scott was in Iowa recently so that tells you that he’s at least kicking the tires on this. He was a Republican I could get behind before he became a little too close to Trump’s orbit. But he is a formidable challenger IF he can sufficiently differentiate himself from fellow South Carolinian Nikki Haley. We’ve seen this movie before, and the Jeb Bush/Marco Rubio Florida dynamic helped Donald Trump.
#6: Former Gov. Chris Christie (NJ) (Previous: 6)
He’s attacking Ron DeSantis. He’s attacking Donald Trump. He went to Texas to meet with donors. He’s running. But considering that Christie 1. Missed his chance in 2012 and 2. got shellacked in his 2016 campaign, will anybody care?
#5: Vivek Ramaswamy (OH): (Previous: NR)
I’ll be honest, I had absolutely no idea who the hell this guy was until he started talking about a run and ultimately announced. I still don’t know very much except he is a billionaire, is against “wokeism” and the ESG framework. It’s the part where he is a billionaire where, in the modern social media driven political market, can take him from being a nobody into being a contender. Though billionaires from Morry Taylor to Michael Bloomberg have run for President with no success. Ramaswamy seems like a guy who wants to drive the conversation more so than somebody with delusions of actually winning.
#4: Former Governor Nikki Haley (SC): (Previous: 5)
Her campaign lifted off in February. Though lifted off might be a stretch. Her campaign really doesn’t seem to have caught fire with much of anybody. But slow and steady sometimes wins the race, and if Haley can use her natural charisma and her ability to campaign to her advantage, she might be able to provide a slither of space in the Trump/DeSantis dynamic.
#3: Gov. Glenn Youngkin (VA) (Previous: 3)
It’s starting to look like Youngkin is really going to do this. A Youngkin adviser recently told Fox news that the race was between Trump and DeSantis and immediately walked it back to the AP. If Youngkin wants to run for President, there may be no better opportunity than right now
#2: Former Vice President Mike Pence (IN) (Previous: 2)
That he is stating the obvious on his book tour tells us that Pence is going to run.
#1: Gov. Ron DeSantis (FL) (Previous: 1)
Ron DeSantis will remain the frontrunner until somebody shows they can compete with him. That Trump is already attacking DeSantis tells you everything you need to know about the pecking order at this stage of the race. And the fact that DeSantis feels plenty comfortable blowing off CPAC speaks volumes of DeSantis campaign’s position and the degradation in the quality of CPAC.
Dropped Out: Brian Kemp, (#6) Chris Sununu (#9)
All real people who have declared their 2024 campaigns.