NFL MOCK Draft 1.0000000000000000
Where Father Keanu speculates with absolutely no inside knowledge
Soooo, it’s draft time. Let’s get in the spirit of this thing and fire off a totally speculative mock draft based on no insider information or knowledge whatsoever. This might actually put me at an advantage, because at this point, most NFL teams just leak lies to the “NFL insiders” in an effort to throw other teams off the scent of their actual plans. This has never been more likely than this year, as teams haven’t seen some of these players in a year and a half. Gauging where players will go is pretty near impossible. Still, I am definitely going to get all 30 right, because I am a football genius (please note, any comments related to the genius of said author are the opinion of the author, and do not reflect the opinion of The Duckpin or reality). Expect to see a lot of my thoughtful analysis in the comments.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence QB Clemson
Uninformed Comment: Lawrence is a pretty safe bet to get this pick, and a pretty safe prospect. I would be a little nervous if I were a Jags fan though. Urban Meyer is definitely a guy who thinks he is smarter than everyone else, and I wouldn’t put it past him to draft a guy ahead of Lawrence because he has a “feeling” about them. Whether it is Justin Fields or Zach Wilson, I would love to hear him go on about their “intangibles” after ignoring everyone else who has been evaluating the actual results on film.
New York Jets: Zach Wilson QB BYU
Uninformed Comment: I suspect the Jets will move on from Sam Darnold. It has been three years without any real movement toward excellence, and the feeling I get is that other teams have no real interest in him because of how bad he has been. He will probably get a low cost shot to redeem himself elsewhere like Josh Rosen or Mitch Trubisky, but not here. Wilson, meanwhile, is a one hit wonder who feels a lot like Joe Burrow last year. His stock shot up, and I think we haven't seen his downside as much as Justin Fields, which will convince teams he is better. I also have noticed a pattern with the Jets taking QBs who are less mobile and more pocket passers. The only one to break that trend was Geno Smith, and the only thing that broke out there was his jaw.
Miami Dolphins: Devonta Smith WR Alabama
Uninformed Comment: This is where shit is going to get weird. I genuinely expect them to trade out of this spot. There is so much buzz surrounding Trey Lance and Justin Fields, I think this pick has too much value to sit on and get a player who will be available later in the round. I am going to predict this is where the Lions or Panthers (or Broncos) step in. Still, I am not going to mess around and move picks. Projecting trades is a fool’s errand. I will just keep it straight up. I think Smith is the best fit for their offense and current personnel.
Atlanta Falcons: Micah Parsons LB Penn State
Uninformed Comment: This team has a horrific defense, and Parsons is the best defensive player available. I don’t think they take a QB here. I think the hiring of Arthur Smith sends the message they want to get more out of Matt Ryan. Arthur Blank also tends to be loyal to a fault. They need help on all three levels of the defense and Parson can help all three, rushing the passer, coverage and stopping the run. He is a complete linebacker. Watch out for Kyle Pitts though… imagine pairing him with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. Damn.
Cincinnati Bengals: Penei Sewell OT Oregon
Uninformed Comment: They keep promising to help out Andy Da… err Joe Burrow with his protection, this would be proof they meant it. They did very little in free agency besides so-so tackle Riley Reiff. Sewell is the best possible outcome for them in this pick, so they will probably take Ja’Marr Chase or Pitts. It’s the F&)$#) Bengals.
Philadelphia Eagles: Ja’Marr Chase WR LSU
Uninformed Comment: It sounds like the Eagles want to give Jalen Hurts a shot at QB (a mistake), and in order to do that, he will need weapons. I expect them to add the player who can best make up for an inaccurate QB in Chase. He is a jump ball wizard and a master of making the catch no matter where the ball is. Kyle Pitts would work here too, but they already have a glut at tight end.
Detroit Lions: Trey Lance QB North Dakota State
Uninformed comment: This team needs help EVERYWHERE. I don’t think they are sold on Jared Goff, since it took two first round picks to convince them to take him. That is why I think they will take Trey Lance here. He is more of a developmental player, but they have the time, and a starter already. Lance could do a Steve McNair type transition this way (the buzz around Lance and his background reminds me of McNair).
Carolina Panthers: Justin Fields QB OSU
Uninformed Comment: Here is where I think we will see the trade up most likely. I doubt they will risk waiting to take a QB here and I think they will move up with someone to get ahead of the Lions, Falcons and Eagles and guarantee their pick. They have a much more complete team (especially on offense), so it would make sense they would feel like they can afford to lose draft picks. Fields is a more NFL ready prospect than Lance, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they prioritized him over Lance. They also burned the the Bridge(water) with a flame thrower while chasing Deshuan Watson, so they gotta make a move now.
Denver Broncos: Mac Jones QB Alabama
Uninformed Comment: You can take the John Elway out of the front office, but you can’t take the front office out of the John Elway. This team can’t resist a big white dude chucking the pigskin around the yard. They know they don’t have the answer in Drew Lock, and they know they need to fix it. With Deshaun Watson out of the mix right now, the Broncos might ALSO look to make a trade up to get a QB they covet. If not, I wonder if they move down instead. Here, though, I have them fulfilling their big, white destiny. The key point here is, their looming shadow is the threat that will force the Panthers to move up to 3. While the Panthers might not want to, if they sit, and the Broncos trade with, say, the Eagles, it could be a problem.
Dallas Cowboys: Kyle Pitts TE Florida
Uninformed Comment: They DESPERATELY need defensive help. Their defense was unspeakably bad. But have you met Jerry Jones? You think he passes on Kyle Pitts here? NO CHANCE. He will take him in a heartbeat. Jerry loves a good splash.
New York Giants: Rashawn Slater OT Northwestern
Uninformed Comment: This team has gone all in to make Daniel Jones good, in a desperate attempt to get everyone to forget about them passing on Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson for Saquon Barkley. It would also help this issue if Saquon Barkley could also be good. Slater would help one of the worst offensive lines in football get better immediately in the short term by playing guard, and in the long term with a move to tackle. That helps Jones and Barkley. Dave Gettleman will do anything to make himself seem smart, but Dave Gettleman making moves to save Dave Gettleman’s job, really puts Dave Gettleman at risk.
San Francisco: Patrick Surtain II CB Alabama
Uninformed Comment: With no good QB options, the 49ers start the process of rebuilding their secondary. The NFC West is loaded with premier receivers at this point, so a strong secondary is a must. Surtain is the best CB available, and his family legacy is strong.
Los Angeles Chargers: Christian Darrisaw OT Virginia Tech
Uninformed Comment: This is another team that is trying to load up offensively to prove their pick at QB was the right one (except in this case it actually was). Here they strengthen their line, a massive weakness last year. Darrisaw is the only great tackle left on the board in a weak year, so he goes to them here.
Minnesota Vikings: Caleb Farley CB Virginia Tech
Uninformed Comment: The Vikings secondary has been putrid for years, and defensive minded Mike Zimmer has been losing his mind. Farley can step in right away and take over one major hole. They might also opt to help the defensive line, but there aren’t really any elite pass rushers this year. John Randle isn’t walking through that door.
New England Patriots: Christian Barmore DT Alabama
Uninformed Comment: The Patriots filled their hole in the middle in free agency with stop gap Devon Godchaux, but that won’t cut it in a defense that desperately needs help to stop the run. Barmore is a hand-me-up from long-time friend Nick Saban, who Belichick trusts. I expect this will meet a major need in the long term for them. Quarterback will have to wait.
Arizona Cardinals: Kwity Paye Edge Michigan
Uninformed Comment: With the departure of Hasan Reddick, this team has a big hole at pass rush end, and Paye is probably the most qualified to fill it. Honestly, there are 3-4 pass rushing guys who could end up here, and I wouldn’t be surprised. There really isn’t much separation at the top of that position. They are all projects in one way or another. There is no Chase Young this year.
Las Vegas Raiders: Jaylen Waddle? WR? Alabama? Your guess is as good as mine.
Uninformed Comment: The Raiders have made a name for themselves in recent years, picking players way ahead of their projection, only to find out those players were projected lower for a reason. So far they have yet to prove themselves geniuses, but Gruden doesn’t care because he still has like 6 years left on his contract. They could use a WR now that Agholor is gone. Waddle and Ruggs together on the outside would be horrifying. Darren Waller would be open on every play.
Miami Dolphins: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LB/S Notre Dame
Uninformed Comment: The Dolphins need both outside linebacker and safety, and Owusu-Koramoah is somehow exceptional at both. He is a perfect fit in a defense that values skill not position. Few players feel like a better fit, to me, with a team than this one.
Washington Football Team: Gregory Rosseau Edge Miami
Uninformed Comment: With Ryan Kerrigan winding things down, this team will suddenly have another hole at end opposite Chase Young. Combining the physical talents of Rosseau on one side and Young on the other would be terrifying. Not as terrifying as being 100 percent owned by Daniel Snyder, but still pretty scary.
Chicago Bears: Najee Harris RB Alabama
Uninformed Comment: This is the dumbest pick I can think of, so I gave it to the second dumbest team (but the dumbest one in the first round this year thanks to the Texans not being here). This team will have no hope of moving the ball effectively with Andy Dalton and Nick Foles, so I can see them convincing themselves they need a great running back to move the ball. Enter Harris, who is very talented, but no running back should go in the first round.
Indianapolis Colts: Rondale Moore WR Purdue
Uninformed Comment: The Colts desperately need a field stretcher and Moore would fit the bill perfectly. He is lightning quick and fast (yes, those are different). He would be just what they need to keep the pressure off Wentz by pushing back the safeties. It could also be Kadarius Toney. Either would work, but Moore feels more regionally appropriate.
Tennessee Titans: Jaycee Horn CB South Carolina
Uninformed Comment: This team desperately needs help in the secondary and on the pass rush. Here, I see them trying to fill in the cornerback slot. You could just as easily see them take Jaelan Philips or Azeez Ojulari. At any rate, the SOS has gone out.
New York Jets: Azeez Ojulari Edge Georgia
Uninformed Comment: With holes everywhere, I expect them to just try and get the best player available. The defense needs a ton of help, so with this pick, I think it will get attention. This is another case where there are a handful of solid defensive pieces they could pick and be fine. So they will probably take a fullback or something. Actually, it’s been a while since a kicker went in the first round…
Pittsburgh Steelers: Alijah Vera-Tucker OT/G USC
Uninformed Comment: The offensive line is starting to fall apart on them, and I expect they will address it with this pick. Tucker is probably the best O-line available here, but watch out for Landon Dickerson. This team really needs a center, but there aren’t really any great ones available.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Travis Etienne RB Clemson
Uninformed Comment: Urban Meyer values speed and elusiveness, and always had elite tailbacks wherever he was that would fit this mold. I think he is going to look to take explosive players, and I think he does so here. Plus, pairing him with his college QB could help the transition for both. Meyer will have to wait till the later rounds to take guys with shady backgrounds.
Cleveland Browns: Trevon Moerhig S TCU
Uninformed Comment: The Browns need help in their secondary desperately, and Moerhig could come right in and compete on day one for a starting spot. The Browns need help at all three levels on defense, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jaelen Philips or Zaven Collins here either.
Baltimore Ravens: Jaelen Philips Edge Miami
Uninformed Comment: They desperately need help at WR, so obviously they eschew that for help replacing Matt Judon. The Ravens have NEVER been a team that drafts for need, and I don’t see why they would now. Philips would probably be the best player available if he fell this far.
New Orleans Saints: Kadarius Toney WR Florida
Uninformed Comment: This is one of the hardest teams to project. They have major salary cap problems and need help across the team. I think they will trade down from this spot, and help with both issues, but if they don’t, taking a talent like Toney here would really help lessen the pressure Michael Thomas is under to catch 10 balls a game.
Green Bay Packers: Rashod Bateman WR Minnesota
Uninformed Comment: I think that this year they listen to the pundits who trashed them last year for taking a QB instead of getting skill players for Rodgers. It helps that Bateman is a solid piece here and not a reach. They tend to like bigger WRs in GB as Rodgers has no trouble throwing people open.
Buffalo Bills: Wyatt Davis G OSU
Uninformed Comment: The Bills desperately need more push in the run game, but I think they are too smart to waste a first round pick on a running back. I expect them to take offensive line help here, and work on getting stronger in the middle. Other options exist as well, but Davis is a real mauler.
Kansas City Chiefs: Zaven Collins LB Tulsa
Uninformed Comment: The Chiefs don’t desperately need anything, but a big fast linebacker is a nice piece for a defense that could use more speed and strength. This could also be an offensive lineman, as they released both of their tackles this offseason. Collins is the best player left here in my mind though.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Javonte Williams RB North Carolina
They don’t really NEED anything. They have re-signed basically everyone, using the salary cap voodoo the Saints have been using for years to maintain their core. The only real weak spot on the roster was RB, where Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette are nothing special. Williams would be a sizable upgrade from both and would help keep the pressure off Brady to have to throw all game.