Last Week: 8-8
Season: 87-87-2
Well, my outcome was pretty bland last week, but don’t be fooled. It was a pretty wild week. Lots of last second quirks and blown leads added up to some strange outcomes. It is also becoming clear that the COVID absences are starting to really impact some teams. It’s becoming harder and harder to say these games are 100 percent legitimate when a team loses all of its quarterbacks the day before a game and they play it like nothing happened. The Ravens had half their team go down, but played anyway. It’s also certain to get worse with the playoffs approaching, and I really hope they have a better plan worked out by then. This will add to the degree of difficulty in picking these games, but we are going to make it work. Trust me, I’m a made up internet character. Let’s take a look back at last week first.
Best Call: My joy at finding the Cowboys favored again was richly rewarded with a Thanksgiving Day Massacre. The Cowboys defense is a total joke and the WFT beat them without throwing any passes down the field. I’m not sure Alex Smith CAN throw a deep ball. It didn’t matter in this case, as they cruised to a win with a million rushing yards. Honorable mention to the Bills for a cool cover over the rudderless Chargers who launched the worst QB sneak in history.
Worst Call: I made the mistake of taking the Raiders over the Falcons in a game that clearly didn’t matter. It never occurred to me that if the Raiders lost, they would go on to miss the playoffs and this game would end up not mattering. The Raiders obliged and got back on track for that 8-8 or 9-7 and the Falcons destroyed another team in a totally meaningless game that probably cost them 4 slots in the NFL draft. Matt Ryan is the Tom Brady of playing out the string.
Bad Beat: A surprisingly large amount of options here, but let’s go with the Browns vs. Jags. This is not a very interesting game, but the Jags certainly made it interesting. Or did they…
The Browns ran for an… obvious first down on a third down run that should have given them the opportunity to run out the clock with kneel downs. Unfortunately this particular referee spotted something different. 6 inches different. I don’t want to make a dick joke here so I won’t. The Jags got the ball back and the devastating Mike Glennon guided them right down the field for a touchdown and failed two point conversion (this combo should be called “The Jag” since they have done it twice in the last 3 weeks). The Jags lost (obviously) but they sure did cover, denying me a winning week.
This week, we are closing in on the playoffs and teams are starting to be officially ruled out of the playoffs (unless you are in the NFC East). The Jets were ruled out last week, the Jags this week. A lot of teams will go down this week. Now is an ideal time to let you know exactly why your favorite team is not going to the Super Bowl. I am sure you will be thrilled to hear why your team isn’t going, so once you find out, if you would go ahead and like, subscribe and share…
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Minnesota Vikings -10
The Jags: Well, besides the obvious reasons (bad ownership, GM, coach, players and fans) the Jags won’t be going to the Super Bowl because they keep trading quarterbacks with the Bears. Without question, the best Chicago Bears quarterback ever is Jay Cutler, who is known more for his love raising chickens and watching Deer Cams than being an NFL quarterback.
The Vikings: The obvious problem here is the secondary, which has very recently been trying out cornerbacks at the local YMCA. Even if their regular cornerbacks had been healthy, it still wouldn’t be a good secondary. Also, Kirk Cousins is still Kirk Cousins. Just like Captain Kirk, he is less known for what he Khan’t do than what he Khan (beat good teams).
Last week the unthinkable happened to cost the Vikings their cover. They gave up touchdowns on fumble returns on consecutive plays. TO THE SAME PLAYER. This has obviously never happened before, but only one time ever has a player even returned a fumble for a TD twice in one game, and it was Pre-Lombardi. So, that was a good win for me, as I had the Panthers. Still, the Vikings are not trustworthy and the Jags keep miraculously covering and losing so efficiently that you could argue they have perfected the “Moral Victory”. Jags +10
Las Vegas Raiders vs. New York Jets -9
The Raiders: The reason the Raiders are not going to Super Bowl is that they will be 8-8 which will not be enough to get into the playoffs in the AFC. Also, their quarterback still has a turnover problem, and their defense is wildly inconsistent.
The Jets: On March 29th, 1978 Adam Gase was born. Adam Gase went to college at Michigan State University, a program known for its leadership and quality at every level. As a graduate assistant, he helped to lead the football program to success thanks to the tireless work of not him but Nick Saban. He moved on, with Nick Saban, to LSU, but not to Miami where Nick Saban quit because he is a baby. He received his first NFL job from noted coaching talent evaluators, the Detroit Lions. He eventually went on to learn to be dick from renowned dick Mike Martz on the San Francisco 49ers. He was then offensive coordinator for the bears where he learned to be a dick from renowned dick Jay Cutler (as a bonus this article name checks Mike Martz as an asshole). He went on from there to be quarterbacks coach for the Denver Broncos while they had Peyton Manning, which is like being the co-pilot on a plane flown by wire. During this time, he missed the birth of his child to help Peyton Manning prepare for a game, which is like missing the birth of a child to fill water bottles on the sideline. Thanks to the recommendation of Peyton Manning (who noticed how well he filled water bottles), the Miami Dolphins hired him. He immediately began the process of alienating key players (because he’s a dick) and managed to stunt the growth of current MVP candidate Ryan Tannehill. After doing nothing for 3 seasons the Dolphins fired him, assuring he would not be an NFL head coach. The Jets, noticing how he ruined a division rival, immediately hired him. Then this happened.
He never did catch that taco, and he lead the Jets’ mediocre, but competitive, squad to become the worst NFL team I have ever seen, and developed a quarterback Tony Romo thought would be much better than Patrick Mahomes, into being traded for nothing next year. Don’t take my word for it, Adam Gase said so.
I’ll take the Raiders -9.
Cleveland Browns vs. Tennessee Titans -5.5
The Browns: Baker Mayfield is great at throwing. Throwing barbs at the opposition.
As far as actual throwing, he is very limited. He needs very simple plays, mostly off of play action, in order to be effective. I think that now that he has a solid coach, there is hope he could grow, but at the moment, he is a bottom half starter in the league.
The Titans: Just like the Vikings, their secondary is terrible, which is going to be a huge problem when they have to play teams like the Steelers or Chiefs in the playoffs. Their offense has some great pieces, but it has been inconsistent with LT Taylor Lewan out.
This is a bad matchup for the Browns, whose defense has been hit with a lot of injuries in the secondary, and struggles to stop the run. On offense, they lack the weapons to take advantage of the bad Titans secondary. I think the Browns’ run ends here. Titans -5.5
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears -3
The Lions: I had a whole paragraph written for Matt Patricia and his pencil dammit. Sadly, they fired him and one of my best sources of content. Still, the Lions problems are a lot like the Jets. Patricia alienated a number of the team’s key players and, between him and the GM, they filled out the roster with bad former Patriots. This team is stuck with a massive talent gap and no clear direction.
The Bears: As I mentioned with the Jaguars, they have taken to trading QBs back and forth with one of the worst QB evaluating teams in the NFL, the Jaguars. The truth is that this team can’t make the Super Bowl, because the GM mistakenly valued Mitchell Trubisky over BOTH Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes who are probably the two best young QBs in the game. A mistake like that is the difference between the playoffs and another three years of rebuild.
Matt Patricia took a team that had consecutive 9-7 seasons to a team that never even flirted with .500. Now that he is gone, I feel like this is going to be a “ding dong the witch is dead” situation. The players hated Patricia. With the sudden freedom to be happy and work hard for someone they like, I think this team will prepare this week like never before. Meanwhile, the Bears have not yet fired their bad coach, so they are playing out the string. Lions +3.
New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons +3
The Saints: Drew Brees has been struggling to throw passes down the field all year. He has quietly morphed into Alex Smith, but he is a lot better than Alex Smith is at being Alex Smith. This limitation is going to be a problem when they get to the playoffs with teams that can actually cover the short part of the field. Breaking 11 ribs (did you know you had 11 ribs) and collapsing a lung is not going to help either. Their defense is also VERY hit or miss.
The Falcons: This team has not had a good defense since the Super Bowl, and the problem is very simply a bunch of missed picks on that side of the ball. They have no playmakers, no pass rush and no elite coverage. Their offense has its problems, but they have one of the least talented defenses in the league.
This game JUST HAPPENED two weeks ago, with the same players and the Saints crushed them. While that is not a guarantee of a repeat, this is STILL a rivalry game and the Falcons STILL suck at playing meaningful games AND, as a bonus, I get an even better line than last time despite already knowing the Saints are way better. Saints -3.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins -11.5
The Bengals: The Bengals are plagued by bad management at all levels. From ownership, to management, to coaches, no one knows what they are doing. Their is no leadership amongst the players either. When Marvin Lewis left, he took 8-8 with him, but he also left a huge leadership vacuum that hasn’t been filled. Until they find real leadership somewhere, this team is going nowhere.
The Dolphins: This team is clearly on the rise out of the same situation the Bengals are in. They filled their leadership void, and are adding good players. They are still behind on offense. Tua is not ready to lead an offense that is in comeback mode, and the offense itself has a serious dearth of playmakers. If they can address that, they will be a contender.
This is actually a tough line to read. The Dolphins have been struggling to put points on the board which makes 11 points seem like a lot. The Bengals, however, are going to run out a bad offense against a meat grinder defense. I think the Dolphins create enough points with defense and special teams to cover here. Dolphins -11.5.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans +3.5
The Colts: Philip Rivers cannot win a Super Bowl at this point in his career. His signing was a cute move to make the playoffs, but it doesn’t solve anything. They are headed for 10-6 and a quick playoff exit. Then Rivers either retires or hangs on for another year. Neither of these things is going to help. They need to draft and develop a QB now.
The Texans: This team made numerous bad offseason moves the last couple years. This has handicapped them for the foreseeable future with an expensive, aging, ineffective core. With the cap not going up, and no top draft picks, it will be a couple years before this team can get better. They simply lack the talent everywhere but quarterback. They need a full rebuild.
I like the Colts here to rebound from their disastrous showing against the Titans. It’s hard for a team this good to be that bad multiple weeks in a row. Meanwhile, the Texans decided not trade Will Fuller at the deadline, and can now enjoy watching his pack up his locker as he serves a steroid suspension. Yet another epic fail from their front office. Colts -3.5
Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals +3
The Rams: The Rams put all their money in the wrong places, singing mediocre players to big contracts (except Aaron Donald). They traded picks for Jalen Ramsey in win now mode with an offense that can’t win now. Jared Goff is the ultimate problem with this team, he is just fancy Kirk Cousins. He can’t win a game for the team. He is a system QB who can do what the opponent gives him.
The Cardinals: Their defense still needs a lot of work, particularly in the secondary, but the thing holding back the Cardinals right now is Kyler Murray’s throwing ability. He is still limited in reading the defense and when his first option is eliminated, he often runs rather than continue his progressions. The Patriots exposed this last week, and good teams have shown the ability to limit his options and fence him in. When he grows as a QB, this offense will be great.
This is one of the toughest calls of the weekend. The Rams are very good defensively and have shown the ability to reign in Murrary, but their offense is very hit or miss. In this one, I will take the points and hope for a close game. Cardinals +3
New York Giants vs. Seattle Seahawks -10.5
The Giants: They barely hung on to beat the Bengals last week, failing to cover on a team that is as bad as the Jets without Burrow. The problem with this team is the GM, who has whiffed on his picks, particularly on offense. Evan Engram, Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley and Andrew Thomas are the last 4 offensive first round picks, none of which have lived up to their billing. They let Odell Beckham Jr. go and have yet to replace him. In the meantime, they have not helped the defense. They have taken two defensive players in the first round. One you have never heard of, and the other you have, because he was involved in an armed robbery. You can’t miss that often and go to the Super Bowl.
The Seahawks. Russell Wilson is the major problem here. Just kidding, it’s the defense, one of the worst in the league. It has been a little better of late, but I have major doubts they can hold down a top offense in the playoffs. They simply don’t have talent on defense, where all the key guys from the Legion of Boom have gone, but have not been replaced. Quick, name a defensive player for the Seahawks that isn’t Jamal Adams (he was obtained through a massive overpay). Jamal Adams has been okay at best, and he is the defense’s best player.
This is an NFC east team playing out of division so I will take the Seahawks -10.5.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers -7
The Eagles: They put their faith in a bad quarterback. It’s really that simple. Carson Wentz is a turnover machine who has yet to figure out NFL defenses. The talent is there, and you can see why they got excited, but he simply lacks the ability to avoid mistakes. He’s expensive Jameis Winston. The rest of the team is aging, and the young pieces aren’t ready. This is a team in transition, teetering over a full rebuild.
The Packers: The Packers defense has a lot of holes (get it, Swiss Cheese, holes). Particularly run defense. This will be a major issue as they can expect to face players like Alvin Kamara, Chris Carson, Kyler Murray and company, and whatever garbage the NFC East spits out (The NFC East is full of good running backs, which shows how important having those is). They will struggle if they have to contain an elite back. Look what the 49ers did to them last year. They have Aaron Rodgers tho…
This is an NFC East team playing out of division so I will take the Packers -7.
New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers Pick ‘em
The Patriots: This team has lost more than Tom Brady, it lost veteran players for the year with opt outs, it has veterans with limited ability signed to expensive contracts, and they haven’t drafted a stud player in years. The biggest hallmark of the Belichick era was his ability to trade away just past their prime assets and get back studs in the draft. That ability is gone, as they got nothing for Brady and several other veteran departures, and the drafting record for the last 5 years is terrible. Quick, name one good offensive player they have drafted since Gronk. I’ll wait.
The Chargers: This team is simply run with incompetence. While I will give the coaching staff some credit for developing Herbert so quickly, he was also a 4 year starter at a power 5 school with a non-stop record of success. The problem is being the worst at special teams for two straight years and getting nothing out of defense that is loaded with playmakers. A quality new coach would immediately vault this group to playoff contention. Listen to his explanation for not calling a timeout immediately and letting 15 seconds run off the clock with his team trailing this week.
There is a huge talent gap between these teams, and an equally large coaching gap in the other direction. People keep seeing all the names and talent on the Chargers and thinking they will win. But they don’t. Because they lose in the margins. I think Belichick will figure out how to slow the rookie QB after watching the Dolphins game plan. I’ll take the Pats. This is our first true pick ‘em of the year. A pick em just means you pick a team outright to win. No spread.
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs -14
The Broncos: Quarterback evaluation continues to be the problem here, as John Elway is stuck looking for the traditional quarterback model, a towering, relatively immobile and cannon armed white dude. Except the NFL is moving away from that model. The majority of busts you see in the NFL right now are players in this model. Daniel Jones, Jared Goff, Mitchell Trubisky, Paxton Lynch, Josh Rosen, Blaine Gabbert, EJ Manuel, Jake Locker, Josh Freeman, Sam Darnold, Blake Bortles, Jameis Winston, and Carson Wentz. Some of these guys miss one or two of those attributes, but the consistent theme is relatively immobile, poor decision maker, and inaccurate. Just like every Broncos pick.
The Chiefs: OK. This is a toughie I have to admit. Their defense is better than last year, where that was the obvious knock. Until last week, teams had figured out how to take away a lot of the big plays the Chiefs could make by playing back. The biggest flaw I see in the Chiefs is that they give up points and have a hard time salting away a lead. They don’t really hold the ball on long drives. If they run up against a team that can do that, and put up points, I could see them losing steam and a lead at the end. I could see teams like the Titans, the Steelers and the Bills all being capable of this.
LOOK HOW FAR THE BALL GOES IN THE AIR. Mahomes is crazy good. These are the throws other QBs just aren’t making. This game has a ton of points being given to the Broncos, and if the Broncos get their QBs back, I could see them bouncing back in a big way after the frustration of last week. I think they are angry the NFL screwed them, and I see them taking it out on the Chiefs and losing by 13. Broncos -14
Washington Football Team vs. Pittsburgh Steelers -7
The WFT: The legacy that existed on this team before Ron Rivera arrived was pretty obvious, it was an old boys club for old white men who had been in the NFL. Despite countless results that indicated the team was terrible and the climate surrounding the franchise was awful, the President and GM kept the same deal going where they would miss picks, sign awful players to huge deals, and everyone got to keep their job except the coach. Well, that lead us to here, where the team has no quarterback, and huge holes all over the roster. It will take years to bounce back from the way this team has been run. Here’s a tweet from August.
The Steelers: The Steelers remain the perfect COVID team in every way. Avoiding outbreaks, maintaining continuity in players and scheme, and playing consistent football. Their defense is good, but not unbeatable. The have benefitted from playing a number of bad offenses or teams that have not handled COVID well. The whole house of cards rests on Ben Roethlisberger playing great, and I am not sure he can all the time. I worry this team will fall in a hole and lack the tools to mount a comeback. This is definitely a team built to play from ahead. To unleash the true potential of this team, Ben has to be able to throw the ball deep, accurately. I just don’t think he can anymore.
The Steelers were royally screwed by the Ravens failure to follow COVID guidelines, and will now have to play several games on short rest, hopefully without getting COVID from the Ravens. The good news is that their schedule continues to be pretty soft. I don’t see them having a problem eliminating the very shallow offense the WFT runs. This is an NFC East team playing out of division so I will take the Steelers -7
Buffalo Bills vs. San Francisco 49ers +1
The Bills: Much like the Steelers house of cards rests on Ben, the Bills offense rests on Josh Allen. He has been much better this year than last for certain. With that said though, he has to be elite for this to happen, and I don’t think he is there yet. There are still too many mental mistakes and inaccurate throws. If he keeps improving at this pace he can get there, but without any rushing attack, it is entirely up to him. I don’t think he is ready quite yet, but I will fill in part of this while I wait and see.
The 49ers: Their season has been completely undone by injuries and COVID. While they are still competitive, they are not going to the Super Bowl with this roster. They also have a problem at quarterback. While Kyle Shanahan has developed an offense that has simplified and limited what is needed for the QB, their lack of a quality starter at the position continues to put a cap on what they can do. This is another team that needs to draft and develop a new QB.
I have been riding the Bills throughout the year and they have not disappointed much. I will continue to take them here. I think the talent gap is significant and I trust Sean McDermott to handle the complex scheming of the 49ers offense. Bills -1
Dallas Cowboys vs. Baltimore Ravens -7.5
The Cowboys: Another team that invested all it’s resources in the wrong places, spending on a running back and wide receivers has lead to an unsigned quarterback, no good defensive players and a patchwork offensive line. The major problem the Cowboys have going forward is that they have needs all over the roster, but especially on defense and will have no cap space to sign anyone. Drafting CeeDee Lamb seemed very clever at the time, and he is a great player, but now it is another year that has gone by, and they just need that much more help on defense.
The Ravens: I’m not sure the Ravens can purchase a time machine, so barring that, the problem this year is that Lamar Jackson isn’t developing along with the league adjusting to him. Their once strong offensive line has become a porous mess, and he lacks the processing speed at this point to make the quicker decisions needed. This offseason the priority is rebuilding the line, and developing new offensive counters.
This is an NFC East team playing out of their division. Ravens -7.5
Bye guys:
These teams are on bye this week, but I thought you might be curious why they won’t be making the Super Bowl.
The Panthers: They still need more pieces on offense, but especially on defense. It is starting to come together and it looks like they have made the right coaching hires, but right now they don’t have any play makers on defense. Also, Teddy Bridgewater is fine, but to get over these troubled waters, they need someone more elite. Draft now, develop later.
The Buccaneers: Tom Brady has some good games and some bad ones, but there are two major problems. Tom Brady is struggling tremendously to throw the ball down the field. Without the ability to open up space for short throws, this team will struggle against a good defense that can take that away. The other problem is in the secondary. This team is devastating against the run, but against any team that can take the top off, they have a huge problem. This was exposed with an exclamation mark by the Chiefs on Sunday.
I keep eyeing the Steelers and Bucs on this list. They are the thing that is out of place here.