NFL Preview: Week 15

What if God came down one day and said: "It's pronounced Jod".

Week 14: 7-9

Overall: 104-101-2

Meh. Another so so week in the books. Not my greatest work by any stretch of the imagination. I might have celebrated a little too soon last week. Not this soon, but too soon.

Picking games starts to get harder toward the end of the year because bad teams really benefit from injuries in a way good teams don’t. When good players on a good team go down, they replace them with bad players. When bad players on a bad team go down, they replace them with bad players. This is why it is so hard for a team to go 16-0 or 0-16. The season tends to pull everyone toward the middle. So special kudos to the Jets. It also makes figuring out who is good a lot harder. That’s ok though, if this was easy it wouldn’t be any fun. Time to get back on track. First though, the week that was.

Best call: The Bills being good. Look, the ship has sailed on Josh Allen not being good. You can say he isn’t great, but even that is pushing it. He has simply developed more and faster than anyone thought he could, other than some die hard Bill’s loyalists. As the weather gets colder, and the games get tougher, young strong throwing quarterbacks are very important. The Bills have a great one. Meanwhile, the Steelers have lost their continuity advantage as the season has worn on, and the reality of a mediocre Ben Roethlisberger has become more relevant. Their defense has been hit with a rash of injuries at linebacker too, that have weakened them. These are two teams headed in opposite directions.

Worst call: Any time I recommend the Jets to cover, a button should go off that electroshocks me into compliance. I’m an idiot.

Bad Beat: Matt Ryan pulled a Charger, and threw an INT with 30 seconds left near field goal range to allow the Chargers to get a game winning kick they did not deserve. Why didn’t they deserve it you ask?

Tony X @soIoucity

chargers run the ball on 3rd and 1 (with no timeouts) and try to rush the FG unit out and dont get the kick off before half???????????

Because their coaching staff is so bad. This on the heel of the performance against New England should lock them in as worst coaching staff of the year, but the Jets still exist.

Another week of bland games is upon us, as the NFL loves to save its good matchups for the last week, so half the teams have already punted on the season or are resting their players. Seems like a wise strategy. In the meantime, there are a couple solid matchups, highlighted by the Chiefs/Saints tilt, which somehow isn’t the Sunday night game. That doesn’t mean all the games are meaningless though. The Falcons can’t play in all of them. Some of these have real stakes attached and for a certain green team, there are only three weeks left to avoid ignominy. Good luck. For this weeks picks, let’s keep it short. Just one gif (Jif?) to describe where each team is at on the season. We will be relying on some classics.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders -3.5

The Chargers: What it’s like to have an incompetent boss.

The Las Vegas Raiders: We are gonna be goodish this year.

This is the rare battle of the team LA doesn’t want and the team it does. I think I have made it very clear where I stand on this brutally incompetent Chargers team. I am also worried that our Raiders won’t get to 8-8 without this one.

Father Keanu @natronbacon

Raiders -3.5. Time to get back on track

The Raiders did not get back on track. An early injury to Derek Carr ruined their day and mine. 8-8 still very much in play.

Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos +5

The Bills: Bills fans in hard core I told you so mode.

The Broncos: There is a tangential correlation between bad dancing and bad play.

I’m just going to keep riding the Bills till I hear or see proof I shouldn’t. The Broncos are wildly inconsistent, and impossible to predict. My only worry is that the Broncos have one of only a handful of actual home field advantages (altitude) that are left. Other teams with a home team advantage are the Dolphins (heat), Browns (misery) and the Chargers (opposing fans can’t fill the stadium). Bills -5

Carolina Panthers vs. Green Bay Packers +8

The Panthers: It will get better I think.

The Packers: Beware the ides of something.

This game is tailor made for the Packers, as the Panther defense is terrible against the run, and the Packers love to establish the run and then let Rodgers loose. Meanwhile, still no McCaffrey for the Panthers, so their hopes are hanging on by a thread, like all of McCaffrey’s fantasy owners. Packers -8

Detroit Lions vs. Tennessee Titans +11

The Lions: I know I should look away…

The Titans: Derrick Henry be like…

I don’t imagine that the Lions have any chance in this game without Stafford. He represents their one shot at covering. With him likely out, they can’t exploit the soft Titans secondary. Meanwhile, the Titans still have Derrick Henry. Titans -11

San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys +3

The 49ers: Maybe less injuries next year?

The Cowboys: Welcome to the third circle of hell…

The 49ers have the ability here to simply not throw the ball and run for 300 yards against this cushy Cowboys D. I don’t see why they wouldn’t do that. I see no way the Cowboys keep up here, and the coaching gulf is incredible. 49ers -3

Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings -3.5

The Bears: It started out well…

The Vikings: The kicking game has been a struggle.

The Bears are suddenly hot behind a rejuvenated Mitch Trubisky. The Vikings, as always, need to establish the run. This will be hard against a tough Bears front 7. I think this is a low scoring affair, that stays within 3. Bears +3.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons +6

The Bucs: Karma’s a bitch.

The Falcons: Our pre-eminent kings of choking. If only they could open the first aid box and find some defense.

This is a tough matchup between karma and choking. Unfortunately, this is another rivalry game which will imbue this one with a little too much meaning for our delightfully bad Falcons to overcome. Bucs -6

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts -7.5

The Texans: That offseason trade…

The Colts: Philip Rivers jumping on the Colts like…

The Texans are hemorrhaging players like crazy on offense, and they were struggling before that. The spell of a new coach has worn off, and they are hanging on for dear life. Meanwhile, the Colts continue to be up and down, but they are by far the healthier team here. Colts -7.5

Seattle Seahawks vs. Washington Football Team +6.5

The Seahawks: The defense needs some work.

The WFT: A lot going on in this organization.

I like the WFT here. They have been playing really good football of late and have shed the NFC loser lifestyle for something more mediocre. Following an easy win, I think the Seahawks will come out a little flat here, opening the door for a cover. Warning, Alex Smith is now out… WFT +5.5

New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins -1

The Patriots: Belichick slowly sinks with HMS Patriots.

The Dolphins: That defense….

I initially had the Pats here, but it is looking like the Dolphins will get some skill guys back this week. Historically, the Pats have a lot of trouble in Miami. It is the only stadium Tom Brady has a losing record in. This mid-December trip to Miami is always tough when you are used to it being 30 degrees and its 100 degrees in on field temp. Phins -1

The Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Baltimore Ravens -13

The Jaguars: Cover your eyes.

The Ravens: I don’t know?

The Ravens survived a shootout with the Browns on Monday and are coming off a major emotional high. And their third straight short week. Meanwhile, the Jags are steadily at the bottom. This feels like a let down game from the Ravens, though. I don’t think they cover. Jaguars +13

New York Jets vs. Los Angeles Rams -17.5

The Jets: Infinitely worse than a dumpster fire.

The Rams: Aaron Donald on the snap like…

Wait, I have the perfect gif for this game…

It feels like the hail Mary full of zero coverage might have broken the Jets competitiveness for good. I don’t see them scoring more than 3 points here.

Rams -17.5

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Arizona Cardinals -6

The Eagles: Carson Wentz shares his level of awareness with a peer…

The Cardinals: Kyler on the move in the secondary…

Unfortunately for me, the Eagles have rejuvenated their season with a sudden switch of QBs. It feels like they have stumbled onto something. Maybe, having a player who can move out of the way of pass rushers is good if you have a terrible offensive line. Meanwhile, Kyler was back to himself last week. Which running quarterback can move it faster? I’m not sure, so I’ll take the points. Eagles +6

Kansas City Chiefs vs. New Orleans Saints +3

The Chiefs: Mahomes vs. Everyone

The Saints: Sean Payton’s feelings about Taysom Hill

That one way Taysom Hill isn’t better is throwing, which is a key component of quarterbacking. So Drew Brees is back, but Michael Thomas is out. That seems like an even exchange. The Chiefs will put points on the board in a hurry, so they will have to keep up. I don’t think they can. I also have a sneaking suspicion that Patrick was unhappy with having the worst game of his career last week. Chiefs -3.

Cleveland Browns vs. NY Giants +6

The Browns: Here is the running game keeping Baker Mayfield going. Nice hat Baker.

The Giants: Their approach to team building. Two steps forward…

The Browns are a very physical team. I am worried about Daniel Jones and his ability to play through his injury. For that reason alone I am taking the Browns here -6.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals +13

The Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger as the season progresses.

The Bengals: Just can’t help it.

Sometimes when one of my kids gets really upset he will hit his pillow really hard to take out his frustration about whatever is bothering him, so he can get it out without hurting himself. The Bengals are a football shaped pillow. The Steelers are a very thick, angry, meaty fist. Steelers -13