NFL Preview: Week 4
Week 3 record: 8-8
Overall record: 22-25-1
La Cerradura De El Padre: 3-0
Best Call: Chargers +6.5 This is the first time the best call is not a correct La Cerradura De El Padre. At this point, being right about the Jags losing by more than single digits isn’t that impressive. In last week’s preview I said that not only can the Chargers cover, but I thought they could win outright. I ALSO said that about the Packers, which means I was 2 for 2 picking teams to not just beat the spread but win outright. That’s pretty good. Hooray me. The Chargers played well, and the cover was never really in doubt. Stay away from the Chiefs.
Worst Call: Eagles +3.5 I took a lot of underdogs this week, and got burned by a bunch of high lines still being covered. I don’t feel extremely bad about that, as I just didn’t have much luck on back door covers. This line makes me the most frustrated looking back, because I have no idea why I thought the Eagles were even close to the Cowboys in terms of talent. I should have spotted this one. In my early season preview, I had the Eagles near the bottom, but I forgot that when they pounded the Falcons. That is looking like an aberration with the Falcons simply being unprepared.
Bad Beat or Miracle Cover: none. I think this might be the first time this happened, but no one was particularly close to a cover and blew it, or vice versa. Most of the lines were way off of the result, which is very interesting. Clearly, there is still some dialing in to do three games into the season.
Here we are in week 4 already. My how the time flies. Last week’s huge lines are a thing of the past, as there is only one line over 7.5, the Bills, who I declared in The OCHO to be my current Super Bowl favorite. They are favored by 16! against the lowly Texans. Tom Brady’s return to New England is the clear pinnacle of this slate. But there are other good matchups, including the first matchup of the NFC West teams, Panthers-Cowboys, Ravens-Broncos, and Raiders-Chargers. As I am sure you have grown bored with my analysis already after three weeks, let’s mix it up this week. I am going to assign each team with a GIF to describe their current situation.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals -7.5
An obvious look into the future of Urban Meyer.
Congrats on not being the worst team in the AFC North.
Well, of course the Bengals won but didn't cover “I won but didn't cover” is going to be the name of my Thursday night football book. The Jags are so bad they lost to a team that only played half a football game. And that team was the Bengals.
Washington Football Team vs. Atlanta Falcons +1
Washington Football Team:
So about that great defense…
Win now, huh…
I don’t know what the hell is going on with the WFT team defense, but I hate it. Meanwhile, the Falcons are just bad. This is a very tough call. I’ll take that WFT, but… again… I hate it. WFT -1
Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills -16
The house burned down, but at least the snake is still on the roster…
Best team in football. Deal with it.
Look, the Texans aren’t going to put more than 10 points on the board here. I can’t imagine them holding the Bills under 27. They aren’t the Steelers defensively. Bills -16
Detroit Lions vs. Arlington Heights Bears -3
How the Lions handle hope.
Arlington Heights Bears:
This GIF is so perfect it has already been customized for the Bears by the public.
I have no idea. Look. The Bears could start anyone at QB here, even Jay Cutler. The Lions can figure out a way to lose in any situation. If you bet this game, you have a real problem. Technically, I have to pick someone so Bears -3 because they are at home I guess.
Carolina Panthers vs. Dallas Cowboys -4
The Panthers trying to save Sam Darnold’s career.
Mike McCarthy’s approach to the final two minutes of either half.
I am not convinced the Panthers’ defense is fixed. Stopping the Jets and Texans is not a miracle. They slowed the Saints well, but that game had a lot of extracurricular stuff going on. The point is, this week, we will see the proof. I’m not buying yet. Plus, no McCaffrey. I am also making this La Cerradura De El Padre. Cowboys -4
Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins -2
So how is the Carson Wentz experience going…
The Dolphins O-line securing the perimeter.
Carson Wentz played last week with two casts on his feet. That’s it for Colts analysis. The Dolphins played one very bad game, and were very close to 2-0 on the road against two tough teams. They are better than they looked in week 2. Also… secret revenge game for Jacoby Brissett. Dolphins -2
Cleveland Browns vs. Minnesota Vikings +2
So far so good… getting the job done.
Nothing is every easy with the Vikings. Ever.
The Vikings are sneaky good. They barely lost their first two games (on the road), then won handily at home. The Browns are also good, but they lack the passing attack to really take advantage of the weak Vikings secondary. I like the Vikings as a feisty home dog. Vikings +2
New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints -7.5
New York Giants:
I mean, it speaks for itself, and it’s already the right color.
New Orleans Saints:
Week 1 to Week 2. Then watch it the other way for week 3.
Looks like the Saints might be really good. Maybe. I know the Giants are bad, and there is going to be a real hornets nest in New Orleans in the Saints first game back after the hurricane. The Superdome is going to be on fire! Oh, I mean the Superdome is going to be rocking! Saints -7.5
Tennessee Titans vs. New York Jets +7
New York Jets:
The eternal suffering of Jets fans. (they deserve it, but still)
Picking the Titans to cover huge spreads is a very dangerous game. Still, I just can’t pick the Jets. They are so… Jets. Titans -7
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles +7
Kansas City Chiefs:
So… why are they suddenly not good? It’s the defense right? Right?
You kinda got me with that Falcons game…
The Chiefs are ATS poison. Don’t do it. Eagles +7
Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams -4
I don’t know how good they really are, but it’s gonna be fun to watch.
Los Angeles Rams:
Ohhhhh, so Matt Stafford IS better than Jared Goff. That is sooooo surprising.
This game is gonna be hella fun. I like the Rams here at home, but I am wary of a let down after last week. Still, the Cardinals’ secondary is not great, and the Rams have the tools to exploit it. Rams -4
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers -3
Already gearing up to listen to next off-season’s Russell Wilson trade rumors.
San Francisco 49ers:
Trying to avoid injuries can be hard.
The 49ers secondary suddenly looked a lot worse when a real QB was slinging the ball around. I expect the Seahawks to be able to pass well against the 49ers defense. On the other side, who knows what we will get from either the 49er offense or the Seahawks defense. The Seahawks basically do whatever you don’t expect and since you would think they would lose here… Seahawks +3.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Denver Broncos -1
Whatever happens, it will be exciting.
Whatever happens, it will be boring.
Oh, so you know what the Ravens will do this week, huh. YOU ARE A LIAR. Another week in the Lamar Zone for Lamar Jackson as he proved once and for all whatever you already thought about him. I’m taking the Broncos -1, and no, I don’t want to think about this for even one more second.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers -6.5
I’d like to welcome the Steelers to a decade of not mattering.
Green Bay Packers:
Terrible start? No long term answer at QB or WR? Defense struggling? Who cares. Let the chaos reign.
The Packers have got their shit back together after forgetting there was a week one. They aren’t as good as last year, but they are fine. Meanwhile Ben Roethlisberger is so washed he is clean for the first time in his life. I can’t support this awful Steelers offense. Packers -6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New England Patriots +7
New England Patriots:
Congratulations, you spent 130 million dollars for a .500 team.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Tom Brady coming home to New England.
Tom Brady is hella mad, and not just because the cameras caught him muttering a string of obscenities last week. He is mad with being driven out from NE. He is mad at Belichick for blaming him for deflategate. He is mad about losing last week. Angry Tom Brady is not to be trifled with. Meanwhile, the Pats are going to struggle to come from behind all season with Jones at QB. He can play from ahead, but that won’t happen in this one. Buccaneers -7
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers -3
Las Vegas Raiders:
Are the Raiders for real?
Los Angeles Chargers:
Hey, this Justin Herbert kid is pretty terrific.
This will be another home game for the Raiders, who’s LA fan base dwarfs the Chargers, who continue to be visitors in their own stadium. I am forced, like with the Cowboys game, to punish the odds makers for making the Raiders a home underdog at +3.5. Raiders +3