With the announcement that U.S. Senator Ben Cardin will not be running for re-election, quite a few dominoes in Maryland Politics will begin to fall.
The most imminent will be Congressman David Trone getting in or getting out of the U.S. Senate race. Trone has the money to compete statewide with anybody due to his immense fortune. But a Trone run for U.S. Senate would create an opening for Congress that likely the entire free world would consider entering.
Seeing as the 2024 Election is an off-year election for state and local offices, anybody who wants to be elected to Congress has a free shot, one that will attract quality candidates from both parties. We repoted in February that House Minority Leader Jason Buckel might consider a run were Trone to run for the Senate. Other potential Republican candidates could include former Delegate Dan Cox, former Delegate Neil Parrott (who has been the Republican nominee twice before), Matthew Foldi and former State Senator Mike Hough. Potential Democrats could include former Frederick County Executive Jan Gardner, former Frederick County Councilman Kai Hagen, State Senator Karen Young, or State Senator Brian Feldman among others.
Before Cardin’s announcement, the 6th had already drawn three never-will-be challengers in Chris Hyser, Todd Puglisi (5.57%, 8th in the 2022 Republican Senate Primary), and Mariel Roca (7.62%, 4th in the CD-6 Primary in 2022).
Beyond Trone, Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks is the other frontrunner. She was arguably the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for Governor in 2022 before she announced she would not run, which certainly endeared her to the Democrats and to the Moore Administration. Alsobrooks has been staffing up so I would consider her candidacy as imminent.
Of course, as County Executive, Alsobrooks winning the Senate race would create a vacancy. The Prince George’s County Charter states:
A vacancy in the office of County Executive shall exist upon the death, resignation or removal of the County Executive, or upon forfeiture of office by a County Executive. Immediately upon a vacancy, the Chief Administrative Officer shall become the Acting County Executive until a County Executive is chosen by the methods established in this Section of the Charter. In the event of a vacancy in the office of County Executive occurring during the last two years of the term, the Council shall select from among its members, by majority vote, a successor for the office for the balance of the unexpired term. If this selection by the Council is not made within fourteen (14) calendar days after the vacancy occurs, the Chair of the Council shall succeed to the Office for the balance of the unexpired term. The Council shall provide by law for the conduct of a special election to fill a vacancy in the office of County Executive that occurs during the first two years of a term and for the appointment, powers and duties of an Acting County Executive pending the outcome of such special election.
That of course would create all sorts of drama and intrigue on when Alsobrooks resigns, how the County Council would decide a vacancy, and whether County Council Chairman Thomas Dernoga would work to assume the office by just holding on making a decision for two weeks.
There has been speculation that Jamie Raskin would run for the Senate. However, I’m not sure he would want to endure speculation about his health following his recovery from cancer, nor would he necessarily want to trade his seniority in the House for a less sure run for the Senate.
There has also been specualtion that Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski may run as well.
As far as Republicans who might run for U.S. Senate, any nominee who doesn’t make an ass out of themselves when they open their mouths would be a solid start. Though that was a bar the party could not clear with their gubernatorial candidate in 2022.
There has been endless speculation for years about former Governor Larry Hogan potentially running for the U.S. Senate. I wrote this back in 2022:
National Republicans keep trying to convince Governor Larry Hogan into the race. Obviously, Hogan would be a very VERY credible candidate and can beat Van Hollen head-to-head. But I remain unconvinced that the Governor wants to be a U.S. Senator. I don’t think he wants to be one of a hundred.
I doubt that his thoughts on the matter will have changed.
Republicans would be smart to nominate a candidate with some experience, who is well liked by multiple wings of the Republican Party, and can put speak about Republican issues eloquently. Though there is no doubt other has beens, never-will-bes, and general freak shows will pay the low fee and make a run.
The filing deadline is still 284 days away. There’s still a whole lot of election politics and gossip between now and then.