Welcome to the latest installment of The Duckpin Republican Presidential Power Rankings. These rankings will list, in my estimation, the contenders for the Republican nomination for President on a 1……16(!) scale. This list will be updated every month; maybe more once we get to later in the year.
The rankings are a combination of polls, data, political environment, and gut feelings. It is not necessarily a ranking in order of who I think should be the Republican nominee, but who is best positioned to win the nomination at that time. Think of it as a snapshot in time. Especially considering at least two candidates are still pussyfooting around with the idea of running.
Third Tier: Non-debate Team
#16: E.W. Jackson (VA): (Previous: 18)
Remember this guy, the 2013 Virginia nominee for Lieutenant Governor and two-time failed U.S. Senate candidate? Mr. “Yoga leads to Satanism” himself? He’s running too. Why? Why not, I guess.
#15: Ex-Secretary of State Corey Stapleton (MT): (Previous: 15)
Fun fact: Corey Stapleton has lost four out of five statewide elections he has run in Montana. But decided in November to run for President anyway. He also has been releasing country music, too. Live your best life, man.
#14: Ex-Mayor Steve Laffey (CO): (Previous: 14)
Steve Laffey was Mayor of Cranson, Rhode Island from 2003-2007 before losing the U.S. Senate Primary to Lincoln Chaffee in 2006. He has run for office a few times in Colorado since moving there a while ago. But he too threw his hat in to run for President.
#13: Larry Elder (CA): (Previous: 13)
Elder for America was a sponsor at CPAC Texas, so the announcement that Elder was running for President surprised nobody. Why else would a talk show host and failed gubernatorial candidate be spending that kind of scratch? Is this going to be a Dale Peterson-type campaign? Or something legitimate?
#12: Perry Johnson (MI): (Previous: 16)
Johnson is a businessman who attempted to run for Governor of Michigan but was disqualified from the ballot for submitting fraudulent signatures needed for ballot access. He’s employing a unique strategy in order to get on the stage for the August 23rd Republican debate; selling t-shirts for $1 and counting them as one of the 40,000 unique small donations necessary to qualify. Will it work? Probably not, but it’s at least a unique way to try and push past the arcane debate qualification rules that help establishment candidates like Trump and DeSantis.
#11: Ryan Binkley (TX): (Previous: 17)
Binkley is doing the best of the second-tier candidates. I’m not entirely sure it is going to matter. He is going hard with an Iowa-centric strategy, with some flirtations in other states and other events. But unless he figures out a way to get on the debate stage, it’s hard to imagine that he’s going to be much of a factor.
#10. Former Congressman Will Hurd (TX) (Previous: 9)
Hurd was only a three-term Congressman, but he also is a veteran CIA operative and a critic of Trumpism within the party. As foreign policy and national security become more important issues heading toward 2024, Hurd is well-positioned to take advantage of both his national security bona fides as well as his anti-Trump stance. Hurd also made no commitments to support the GOP nominee in 2024, so that will keep him off the stage of any RNC-controlled debates. He better have a plan to overcome that or else this is just an exercise to sell books.
#9: Former Gov. Asa Hutchinson (AK) (Previous: 7)
Dropping from the debate stage at this point is a bad sign.
Second Tier: Debate Team
#8: Governor Doug Burgum (ND): (Previous: 11)
I think that his time in the sun is just about done unless he can make a splash/. He has made the debate stage twice, which is more than can be sad for the above tier. But no matter how much of a point he has to make, you can’t make it when you talk for ninety seconds in a row over the moderator.
#7: Vivek Ramaswamy (OH): (Previous: 5)
Look the bloom is off the rose here when Nikki Haley can say this about Vivek and everybody be like “yeah, that checks”.
#6: Sen. Tim Scott (SC) (Previous: 3)
He’s finished.
#5: Former Vice President Mike Pence (IN) (Previous: 6)
The longer goes on without Pence making a splash, the harder it is going to be to gain any traction to stay in the top tier. I mean, he’s a former Vice-President and is a household name in the GOP. You can’t say he’s left for dead already, but it’s getting late early out there.
#4 Gov. Ron DeSantis (FL) (Previous: 5)
Remember when I said that Ron DeSantis looked unbeatable? I’m not sure he makes it to New Hampshire anymore. A third of the staff was cut. Nazi imagery was used. He got into a car accident in Tennessee while campaigning but was in a Florida state government car. He suggested he could appoint Democrat Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. as head of the FDA or the CDC before backtracking. Ron DeSantis seems like he’s campaigning solely to Trump voters. There is no way he can pivot to a general election after some of the crazy stuff he’s said. Right now, this looks like a campaign starting to circle the drain.
#3: Former Governor Nikki Haley (SC): (Previous: 6)
She had another good debate that’s for sure. I’m not sure it’s going to help in the long run. Trumpworld is seeing a surge for her in the polls, but is it too early? Will it matter?
#2: Former Gov. Chris Christie (NJ) (Previous: 3)
Christie keeps moving up the list because he may be one of the last men standing. He has been very aggressive with his Republican opponents, notably Trump, even calling him “Donald Duck” for not showing up to the debates. I’m not sure today’s Republican electorate will go with it, but he is better poised to go far than most of the field right now. He had another very good first debate, though I’m not sure how much it will help him.
First Tier: The Surreal World
#1: Ex-President Donald Trump (FL) (Previous: 1)
Facing 91 criminal charges and yet the rubes keep him at the top of the polls. Maybe this is why the RNC is low on fundraising…..
Trump, however, gets his own tier here. The GOP is so committed to losing this Presidential election that their voters are posted to continue riding with him. And from the looks of it, nothing is going to stop the GOP’s Stockholm Syndrome.
Dropped Out: None