Primary Prognostications
Maryland’s primary election is this Tuesday, Jun 23rd. There has been scant public polling on any of the key races Maryland voters are deciding on Tuesday. While some supporters (and even some candidates) have taken to Kalshi and Polymarket to justify their standings and winnability, we are basically stuck in a situation where our pWAR metric and fundaising prowess are the only public metrics that we actually have on this race.
Which means your guess is as good as mine.
With all that being said, here’s how I see things shipping up in a few races.
Gubernatorial Primary
Democratic: The question here is whether Eric Felber, the Democrat running against Wes Moore for Governor in the primary, will cross the Fustero Line. Grocery clerk Raymond Fustero famously received 20% of the vote in the Democratic Primary against Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in 2002, and foreshadowed Townsend’s general election loss to Republican Bob Ehrlich.
As unpopular as Moore is, I don’t see it happening.Republican: In the worst multi-candidate Republican primary in memory, the winner will be either Ed Hale or Dan Cox. Honestly, it’s a pick’em at this point: Hale is a former Democrat endorsed by a lot of Republicans, and Cox is a lifelong Republican who was a total disaster as the GOP nominee in 2022. This really could go either way, but I think Cox will win. Maybe. Ask me again in an hour.
Congressional Primary
5: Adrian Boafo will come out of this mess of candidates as the Democratic nominee and likely new Congressman.
6: Democratic primary voters have always rejected David Trone when a viable candidate is running against him. That’s not going to change facing incumbent April McClain Delaney.
On the Republican side……does it matter?
State Senate Primaries
6: State Senator Johnny Ray Salling has a spirited challenge from Daniel Eisenhart in this Southeastern Baltimore County distirct. Salling should easily demolish Eisenhart.
17: Incumbent Cheryl Kagan is in the midst of a brutal primary with challenger Phil Cook. Kagan has survived before, and she probably will again.
32: Democrats tried to pull a switcheroo with this Senate seat, with incumbent Pam Beidle withdrawing at the last minute in an attempt to hand the seat to ex-Republican Delegate Mark Chang. Chang should win, but don’t discount the idea that Stephen Tillett could win.
41: Delegate Malcolm Ruff should defeat incumbent Dalya Attar based on Attar’s criminal issues.
42: Republican voters will reject the incompetent carpetbagging boob Adam Wood in favor of Kevin Ford.
County Executive Primaries
Anne Arundel: Two county councilmembers, Pete Smith and Allison Pickard, face off in the Democratic primary with former Steuart Pittman flunky James Kitchin. The one poll that seems to exist is the very flawed Anne Arundel Community College poll that had Kitchin ahead in a tight race. I don’t buy it. I think Smith will survive this primary and face token opposition from Dave Crawford in the general election.
Baltimore County: What an ugly race this has been, with accusations being traded back and forth at will. I think that County Councilman Julian Jones will win this primary, with the only thing certain being that Councilman Pat Young will have plenty of time to make videos again.
Harford: Speaking of ugly primaries, what’s in the water up in Harford County these days, where every Republican seems to hate each other? That being said, incumbent Bob Cassilly should prevail over Councilman Patrick Vincenti.
Howard: Former Delegate Vanessa Atterbeary will win this primary, and pretty handily, too.
Montgomery: As somebody who has never lived in Montgomery County, this county seems the toughest nut to crack from an outsider perspective. This race obviously gets a lot of coverage, however, being Maryland’s largest county. I do believe Councilman Andrew Friedson will win over Councilmen Evan Glass and Will Jawando, but it will be a long night for all of them.
How many of my predictions will be right? Not all of them, that’s for sure. But that’s a question for Wednesday morning…