The 2019 Coaching Carousel seemed like it was going to be pretty tame in early December. USC did not fire Clay Helton, after casting around for bigger names like James Franklin or Bob Stoops, Florida State made a solid choice in Mike Norvell from Memphis, and a number of schools made conventional choices – although Lane Kiffin to Ole Miss was certainly a splashy hire after a reaction firing of Matt Luke following a blown Egg Bowl.
Then in early January all heck broke loose. Mississippi State decided that they needed a name coach to match what Ole Miss did and ended the ill-fitting tenure of Joe Moorehead after two uneven seasons. They brought in Mike Leach from Washington State who then hired Nick Rolovich from Hawaii – one of the more underrated coaches in the Mountain West. Washington’s elite coach Chris Petersen suddenly announced his retirement, although that was filled internally.
We had Matt Rhule leaving Baylor for the NFL, a post-high school recruit signing day retirement of Mark Dantonio at Michigan State which caused them to pilfer Mel Tucker from Colorado after one year…and on and on it went. Rutgers was going to bring Greg Schiano back then they weren’t, then they did it. Lots of dominoes also fell in the assistant ranks as a number of coordinators got their shot at the head job or moved to other places. Looking ahead to the 2020 coaching carousel, more craziness seems likely as there’s always at least one or two big surprises (but the current hot seat is for a different column).
Below are grades for Division 1 Power 5 coaching changes plus Mountain West and American Athletic Conference, the two highest profile Group of 5 conferences. I’m not ranking below that because I recognize the limits of my knowledge and don’t want to short-change anyone.
I’m grading it based on the quality and record of the coach is that was hired, the level of the program and their expectations. A coach rated a “B” may not be a worse coach or end up a worse coach as an “A-“, it’s partly in relation to the circumstances they are walking into and the dynamics of the school. As always, love to hear feedback @justinready on Twitter or justinready@yahoo.com.
A’s
Lane Kiffin – Ole Miss: Hear me out…I’m not saying that Lane is better than some of the other coaches on this list. He’s really good as an offensive play-caller and recruiter. It remains to be seen if he’s smoothed out some of his troubles as a younger coach with program and full-game management. At FAU, he seems to have done a fine job but that was a low-level school that was thrilled with all the attention they were getting even when things didn’t go perfectly. However, for Ole Miss – coming off probation and competing in one of the two toughest divisions in college football (SEC West with B1G East being the other) and wanting to get lots of attention– this was about the best-case scenario. The schedule is tough as a two dollar steak this year, so anything more than 5-6 wins should put Lane in SEC Coach of the Year discussion but in year two and beyond I would expect Ole Miss to punk at least one to two teams they are underdogs too regularly. It’ll be fun to watch – except when they play my team.
A-‘s
Nick Rolovich – Washington State: Usually when a Power 5 program without a lot of inherent resources or remote location loses a top-flight, big name coach like Mike Leach, especially late in the process, disaster can strike with uninspired promotion from within or rushed, unvetted hires setting the program back. Not so, in my view, with Wazzu’s plucking of Nick Rolovich from Hawaii. All he did at his alma mater, a tough place to win consistently and recruit to, was improve the program from losing records to 10 wins in his final season. Rolovich is a spread offense guy but puts emphasis on hard-nosed toughness on both sides of the ball. He’s already made a splash with the locals in Eastern Washington and, I could argue, he very well may end up being an improvement over Leach – who seemed to be losing his edge a bit last season. Only question here is if he can recruit at a PAC-12 level to a place that’s very difficult and can he get Washington State to any kind of sustainable success. My money would be on him.
B+’s
Mike Norvell – Florida State: It may not be fair, but before last week’s brouhaha over Norvell’s inaccurate (or less than specific or dishonest) portrayal of how he was reaching out to his new players over the unrest regarding George Floyd and protests nationwide, I would’ve had this an A-. On the field Norvell can flat out coach, taking Memphis up a notch from newly regular bowl team to the Cotton Bowl and regular AAC Championship contention. He’s well-positioned to unite the warring Florida State Seminole boosters (see what I did there?) that have plagued the program since the final years of Jimbo Fisher and throughout Willie Taggert’s short tenure. Norvell was not the first choice, but after trying to get interest from Bob Stoops, James Franklin and perhaps other big names, he’s the solid choice and could be in Tallahassee for a long time. Florida State’s facilities were running way behind, and it’s one reason that Jimbo left at the end of 2017. Now they are on track and, in a weakened ACC with only the big bully of Clemson on the block, Norvell is well-positioned.
Mike Leach – Mississippi State: Even a couple of years ago, this would probably have been an A minus or higher. Leach is quite a character and always fields interesting, fun teams…at least on the offensive side of the ball. Part of the reason MSU parted ways with Joe Moorehead after just two seasons was the struggles on offense, although there were other factors. However, one of those factors was the fact that Moorehead, a New York/New Jersey guy, was a bit of an odd fit in Starkville. Leach could also be an odd fit. At Washington State, he was on edge a few times in his final season and doesn’t seem to handle scrutiny well. He also didn’t get a spring practice to implement his offense which is a system based on running a few plays to perfection with thousands of reps between QB and receivers. This first year could be rough. With all that said, Leach has won everywhere he’s been as both a head coach or offensive coordinator, including really tough places like Texas Tech, Washington State and as a coordinator at Kentucky and Oklahoma (in Bob Stoops’ first year when they had stunk previously). Finally – this hiring seemed to be almost in response to Ole Miss making a splash hiring Lane Kiffin. The rivalry in the Magnolia State is always fascinating, now it will be even more so.
Greg Schiano – Rutgers: Schiano returns to where it all started for him as a head coach, where from 2006-2010 he gave Rutgers arguably the best years in program history before leaving for the NFL. The shine came off of Schiano pretty quickly as he had no success at Tampa Bay and made some enemies along the way because of his brash, hard nosed style. He came back to college football as defensive coordinator at Ohio State, but the Buckeyes did not get better under his leadership by and large. Ryan Day moved on from him when he assumed the head job. Schiano was a finalist for the Tennessee job (as was Mike Leach who turned it down) after the 2017 season but the fan base literally revolted and it led to the firing of the Tennessee athletic director. So why is this a B+? Rutgers has been an absolute dumpster fire since joining the Big 10. They are hopelessly mired in last place in the East and the interest and commitment to the program – with college football already not a priority in the greater NY/NJ area – was waning to the point of danger. Schiano was the name they needed to have, a return to the only era of glory anyone could point to for Rutgers football. To his credit, Schiano seems to be intent on proving that he’s learned a few lessons from his NFL and recent college experience and presented a detailed plan for rescuing the program. After some fits and starts, where Rutgers almost walked away and the Schiano almost did – they got a deal done. Literally this was a hire the school had to have. We will see if Schiano can come close to duplicating what he did in the mid-to-late 2000’s when Rutgers was in the much weaker Big East. If he can get the Scarlett Knights to even regularly contend for 6 wins and a bowl, they should build him a statue and name the stadium after him.
B’s
Dave Aranda – Baylor: Matt Rhule left Baylor about 1000X better than he found it, leaving on a high note, Big 12 Championship game appearance, 11 win season and Sugar Bowl birth. Those things would have been unthinkable after his first season in 2017 when the Bears – reeling from a huge scandal that almost landed the program the death penalty and rightly so – finished 1-11. Rhule left to pursue his dream of being an NFL head coach in January. Baylor was fortunate to be able to land Aranda, who was an elite defensive coordinator at Wisconsin and then LSU for nearly a decade. Aranda seems fully ready to be a head coach, the only thing keeping him from a higher ranking is concern about offensive experience in an offensive minded league and the fact that his first head job is in the Big 12. It’s a pretty safe bet he will succeed – although Baylor fans should not expect 10-11 wins a year as a consistent floor, it’s more of the ceiling in Waco.
Jeff Scott – USF: South Florida has been thought of as a sleeping giant for a number of years, but only Willie Taggert was ever able to get the Bulls to really jump off the page, although Charlie Strong had a good first year before cratering to 4-8 last year after a mediocre 7-6 in 2018. Enter Jeff Scott, a key cog in the Clemson machine serving as co-offensive coordinator there for the past several years. There are some facilities concerns and a lot more recruiting competition for USF now than there was when the program really took off in the mid-2000’s but this is a hire to take the Bulls in a different direction. We’ll see if Scott can break through.
Eli Drinkwitz – Missouri: In his one season as a head coach, Drinkwitz led Appalachian State to it’s second straight Sun Belt Conference championship and a 12-1 record. Before that, he was well-regarded as an offensive mind at N.C. State. Missouri may have gone after some bigger names privately but it seemed like the settled on Drinkwitz pretty quickly internally. Offensive struggles had doomed them to disappointing finishes in the last couple of years so Eli may be just what the doctor ordered. However, the SEC East is getting a lot tougher with Florida’s resurgence, Kentucky vastly improved and Tennessee starting to maybe bounce back under Jeremy Pruitt. We’ll see if Drinkwitz has what it takes to succeed – he doesn’t have a long track record of success to go off of.
Jimmy Lake – Washington: Chris Petersen retired rather suddenly at Washington after taking the program to heights it hadn’t seen in 15 years (Rose, Fiesta and National Playoff appearances in three straight seasons followed by a bit of a hiccup back to 8 wins in 2019). Into his shoes steps defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake. Washington’s defense was certainly a consistent bright spot during the previous four years even as offenses sometimes slowed down. Lake’s hiring was met with widespread approval from boosters, the university and fans. There’s no reason to think he won’t keep things rolling. The only reservation is similar to Aranda and others on this list, it’s a big jump for some to have your first head job be at a place as high-profile as Washington in the PAC-12. Could Washington have gone after a bigger name? Possibly. I’m betting Lake’s going to do well though.
Kaelin DeBoer – Fresno State: Coming back to Fresno where he was OC, after a stint as Indiana OC, DeBoer takes over for retiring Jeff Tedford who dramatically improved Fresno State’s fortunes during his relatively short stint there (three seasons). This seems to be a continuity hire more than anything – certainly DeBoer’s offenses under Tedford’s tutelage excelled and DeBoer’s one year at Indiana was one of the most successful overall for that program in quite some time, culminating in 8 wins. DeBoer has been a head coach before, but way down at the NAIA level (below DIII). However he did win three national titles before moving up to FBS. Potentially a long-term fit at Fresno.
B-‘s
Marcus Arroyo – UNLV: Some college football insiders have marveled at why, with the location in Las Vegas close to prime recruiting territory and a decent Group of Five conference affiliation (Mountain West), that University of Nevada-Las Vegas has never been able to become a winner, much less a consistent one. They went the high school coach route before Arroyo – Tony Sanchez from Bishop Gorman in Las Vegas. But five seasons and a 19-40 record later, UNLV has moved on to well-traveled assistant Marcus Arroyo. Getting the offensive coordinator from a place like Oregon, fresh off a Rose Bowl, to come would usually be ranked higher than B- in my book for a lower tier school, but it remains to be seen if Arroyo, who was solid but not necessarily spectacular in several college stops, will be able to turn UNLV’s fortunes around.
Jeff Hafley – Boston College: Despite being a coordinator for only one year at Ohio State, Hafley brings a lot of experience from college and the NFL as a secondary coach, is known as a good recruiter and perhaps most importantly, is a Northeastern guy, having grown up in New Jersey. He’s familiar with the challenges of coaching one of the two truly Northeastern Power 5 programs (three if you count Rutgers in New Jersey) and he kicked off his stint landing a key QB recruit in the transfer portal. Downside is the fact that he’s not particularly experienced running a full defense, much less a whole program. For BC however, this was a solid, if unspectacular, hire.
Danny Gonzalez – New Mexico: As a former player at New Mexico back in the 1990’s when the program got really going under Dennis Franchione, and as Arizona State’s defensive coordinator who has good recruiting contacts all across the Southwest, Gonzalez checks the boxes needed for a job like this. He understands the challenges and has Mountain West and PAC-12 coaching experience. It’s not the splashiest hire, but a good fit at New Mexico taking over after the Bob Davie era went completely sideways. It’s hard to know if the program can get much past the 5-6 win plateau, but if Gonzalez can get them back to competing regularly for bowl berths, he may be a hot coach in future searches at bigger programs.
C’s
Mel Tucker – Michigan State: A top-flight assistant for both Nick Saban and Kirby Smart, Tucker seemed to have Colorado headed in the right direction after one year, going 5-6 but recruiting well. His abrupt, late leaving was due in part to Michigan State being left in lurch by late retirement of Mark Dantonio following National Signing Day and their top choice (Luke Fickell of Cincinnati), and possibly others, saying no. I would be tempted to rank the hiring of a one year, 5-6 coach from another region of the country lower than B- but given what Michigan State had to work with, this grade seems appropriate. Mel Tucker may be just what the program needs to stand out in the B1G East – but he will need to get the offense turned around from dismal performances in the last three Dantonio-led seasons…and he’s a defensive guy.
Todd Graham – Hawaii: This hire at a Power 5, or even possibly a stronger MWC school would’ve been a C minus but Hawaii – after losing possibly the best coach they’ve had since Dick Tomey (certainly since June Jones), was able to hire a guy with an established resume of recruiting and innovation. While being lampooned for job-hopping early in his career and flickering out a bit at Arizona State, Graham has had moments of great success in stops at Rice, Tulsa, Pitt and ASU. Hawaii had a real go-getter with Nick Rolovich, they at least replaced him with a known commodity. It will remain to be seen if this is a long-term job for Graham and/or if he has expanded his horizons since Arizona State.
C-‘s
Sam Pittman – Arkansas: If you’re like a lot of SEC fans, you said “Who?” when Arkansas ended their coaching search – which they had started in-season – by hiring Sam Pittman. Known as one of the best offensive line coaches in the country, he was at Georgia with Kirby Smart when he got the call. A lot of Arkansas fans are happy that he was at Arkansas previously and grew up in the area. Pittman is considered an elite recruiter as well and was instrumental in Kirby Smart’s success building Georgia back into a national power. However, Arkansas was aiming for Leach, Kiffin or another big name, Pittman was clearly 5th or 6th choice. With all the chaos that Arkansas has been through in the past few years, maybe a steady hand at the tiller is better than a flashier choice but it’s hard to see Pittman getting them back into any kind of consistent 7-8 win territory.
Ryan Silverfield – Memphis: This was a continuity hire for Memphis, keeping the offensive line coach as the head man. No I’m not picking on offensive line coaches being elevated by having both of them in this class at the C- level. It just strikes me that a program that went 38-15 in a talent-rich area of the country, where you’re one step below the Power 5 (and Memphis may end up in the BIG 12 or ACC at some point) – you would be able to do better than elevating basically the interim coach who hasn’t yet been a coordinator. On the positive side, offensive line coaches understand what it takes to be successful at a fundamental level – excellent line play on both sides is critical at all levels of football.
D’s
Karl Dorrell – Colorado: The guy had one good season out of four at UCLA over 15 years ago, was fired, went back to the NFL and never rose above WR coach there – he was back in college for just one year, 2014 at Vanderbilt as offensive coordinator, where the team averaged…17 points a game. Feels like a desperate (and affordable) reach for the Buffaloes. It was understandable that they’d struggle to find a “name” replacement when Mel Tucker abruptly left in February after just one season. But Dorrell, though he had been an assistant at Colorado in the 1990’s, seems an odd choice.
Steve Addazio – Colorado State: With basically a career .500 record at Temple and Boston College, and having just been fired at BC, Addazio’s hire – when Colorado State has just built a state of the art new stadium and seemed ready to compete for better recruits and eyeballs in the Mountain West (with a chance at Big 12 expansion in the future) – was a strange fit. The narrative emerged that Addazio had Urban Meyer (a former Colorado State assistant) in his corner, who was part of the search committee. Whatever the case, Addazio never coached East of the Mississippi River and at age 60, wasn’t the dynamic hire that you would have expected for this program which was winning the Mountain West only three years before.
Brady Hoke – San Diego State: It’s hard to come back to a school you left for greener pastures and succeed. Two people on this list are doing just that. In the case of San Diego State and Brady Hoke, it seem like an odd choice. Hoke clearly ran out of steam at Michigan and was booted out of low-level assistant jobs after that before settling back at San Diego State. Now he’s head man again. He had success with the Aztecs a decade ago but with the program being a pretty above-average one in a solid conference like the Mountain West in fertile recruiting grounds, it’s surprising the powers-that-be didn’t look for a bigger name or fresh start. Maybe Hoke can recapture his mojo…but I’m skeptical.
My next column will get away from “lists” and focus a bit more on an underreported story and program in my home state and what fans of schools in pro sports-dominated areas, who only casually follow college football, should understand about building a program for the long-term.
You can drop me a reaction at justinready@yahoo.com or hit me up on Twitter @justinready!