Thomas Massie is, at this writing, still listed as a potential Republican contender for 2028. He is also, at this writing, a sitting member of Congress who just lost his own House primary to a Trump-backed challenger. Politics1 will happily list you as a presidential prospect the same month you can’t win your own seat back home. That tells you something about how loose the standard for “2028 contender” has gotten in a field with no incumbent and no obvious heir.
That looseness is exactly why we have pWAR. With Trump term-limited out by the 22nd Amendment regardless by the bluster of he and his minions, the Republican side of 2028 is the most wide-open GOP primary since 2016. Seventeen names, by my count, clear the bar of having either declared, formed an exploratory committee, or been treated as a live national possibility by Politics1 or Wikipedia’s tracking page.
A few adaptations for a presidential field, since primaries and legislative races aren’t structurally identical. EV here measures standing in the invisible primary relative to a generic “credible national candidate” baseline, not margin against a district benchmark. DA_bonus rewards candidates who’ve actually won in hostile territory, not just held safe turf. PEP and GEP still apply to prior primary collapses and general-election underperformance, with the usual decay and FFP interaction. Replacement level for a national presidential field is set higher than a Maryland county council race: We’re using +1.0, because a generic credible national candidate clears a much higher bar than a generic downballot placeholder. Below that line, you are not adding value to the field. You are taking up a debate stage slot.
With Republicans gathering in Dallas this week for their goofy mid-cycle convention, let’s take a look.