Congressman John Sarbanes announced this week that he would not run for a tenth term, choosing retirement over an easy re-election bid. One of several interesting stories in the Congressional races this week.
1st District
Democrats had their best shot since 2010 to defeat Republican Andy Harris last year when they nominated former Delegate Heather Mizeur. Three Democratic candidates have filed to challenge Harris, none of which would be consequential in the General. Harris has already drawn the traditional token Republican challengers he gets almost every year who draws no more than 20% of the vote. This year, Chris Bruneau and Michael Lemon are the token challengers.
2nd District
There has been much speculation about Dutch Ruppersburger potentially retiring instead of running for re-election. If Ruppersburger does retire, there are a whole host of candidates who may take a shot at the seat, specifically Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski, Jr. So far, only Democrat Clinton Spellman Jr has filed to challenge Ruppersburger in the primary. Republicans will likely manage to nominate a candidate even worse than the self-important legend in her own mind Nicolee Ambrose.
3rd District
The last time I wrote a check-in on the Congressional races, I wrote:
With John Sarbanes not running for U.S. Senate, any potential drama in this district has gone by the wayside.
Whoops.
John Sarbanes announced his retirement yesterday, and that pretty much threw a hand grenade into the Democratic primary season.
With a district that comprises mostly Anne Arundel and Howard Counties, every elected Democrat in the District is going to take a look at this race given that they will have a free shot at it, as 2024 is an off-year for state and local races. The most likely candidates include Howard County Executive Calvin Ball, State Senators Sarah Elfreth and Clarence Lam.
An open seat could make a credible Republican decide to jump into the race as well.
4th District
Freshman Congressman Glenn Ivey certainly isn’t going anyway, but he has still drawn three challengers. Conspiracy theorist George McDermott is running his typical perennial challenge that will net him at best 20% of the vote if he even makes it out of the primary.
5th District
Maryland Matters fed into the will-he-or-won’t-he speculation surrounding Steny Hoyer. Like retiring U.S. Senator Ben Cardin, Hoyer was first elected to public office in 1966. Following 12 years in the Senate, including four years as Senate President, he lost a bid for Lieutenant Governor running with Blair Lee III in 1978. He was elected to Congress in a 1981 special election and has been there ever since.
If Hoyer runs again, he will win. McKayla Wilkes is running another doomed primary challenge against Hoyer and she will lose again. If Hoyer retires, Wilkes would have a puncher’s chance to win in what will no doubt be a very crowded Democratic primary as every Democrat in the 5th will leap at a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
The quality of Republican candidates will likely vary depending on whether or not Hoyer retires.
6th District
The hors d'oeuvre nobody ordered is coming.
The presumption is that Cox will announce he is running for Congress in the 6th District. Because Maryland Republican voters seem to have entered a suicide pact with the batshit wing of the GOP, he will likely be the Republican nominee. This would, of course, surrender any chance of Republicans winning this seat in 2024 has nobody except the wackadoo wing of the GOP likes this guy. Plus, don’t forget Dan Cox got his ass kicked hard in 2022.
You may also remember that we announced in July that Cox would run. Cox then denied it, said the filing was fraudulent, and that he was filing a complaint with the FEC.
The rest of the Republican has more interesting candidate, such as Tom Royals, former Delegate Brenda Thaim, and Woodsboro Burgess Heath Barnes. Either of those three candidates can be competitive in a General Election
The rest of the Republican ballot remains populated by never-will-be challengers in Chris Hyser,.snd Mariel Roca (7.62%, 4th in the CD-6 Primary in 2022).
Chris Hyser, in case you haven’t been paying attention, is a Muslim Chaplain who doesn’t want to talk about being a Muslim. Amongst other things. Click here to see all the wackiness that is Hyser, Western Maryland’s biggest narcissist.
On the Democratic side, the candidates are a motley crew including Delegate Lesley Lopez, Delegate Joe Vogel, Hagerstown Mayor Tekesha Martinez, biologically male perennial candidate Mia Mason, Steven McDow, Ashwani Jain, and Destiny Drake West. April McClain-Delaney, the wife of former Congressman John Delaney, will start as the favorite given her name recognition and her husband’s fortune. The Delaneys bought the seat once; they’ll try to do so again.
7th District
Unless Kweisi Mfume retires, this will be another snoozer. Republican Lorrie Sigley is the only filed candidate.
8th District
Jamie Raskin is running for re-election, so nothing to watch here.