Welcome to the latest installment of The Duckpin Republican Presidential Power Rankings. These rankings will list, in my estimation, the contenders for the Republican nomination for President on a 1……18(!) scale. This list will be updated every month; maybe more once we get to later in the year.
The rankings are a combination of polls, data, political environment, and gut feelings. It is not necessarily a ranking in order of who I think should be the Republican nominee, but who is best positioned to win the nomination at that time. Think of it as a snapshot in time. Especially considering at least two candidates are still pussyfooting around with the idea of running.
Second Tier: Non-debate Team
#16: E.W. Jackson (VA): (Previous: 18)
Remember this guy, the 2013 Virginia nominee for Lieutenant Governor and two-time failed U.S. Senate candidate? Mr. “Yoga leads to Satanism” himself? He’s running too. Why? Why not, I guess.
#15: Ex-Secretary of State Corey Stapleton (MT): (Previous: 15)
Fun fact: Corey Stapleton has lost four out of five statewide elections he has run in Montana. But decided in November to run for President anyway. He also has been releasing country music, too. Live your best life, man.
#14: Ex-Mayor Steve Laffey (CO): (Previous: 14)
Steve Laffey was Mayor of Cranson, Rhode Island from 2003-2007 before losing the U.S. Senate Primary to Lincoln Chaffee in 2006. He has run for office a few times in Colorado since moving there a while ago. But he too threw his hat in to run for President.
#13: Larry Elder (CA): (Previous: 13)
Elder for America was a sponsor at CPAC Texas, so the announcement that Elder was running for President surprised nobody. Why else would a talk show host and failed gubernatorial candidate be spending that kind of scratch? Is this going to be a Dale Peterson-type campaign? Or something legitimate?
#12: Perry Johnson (MI): (Previous: 16)
Johnson is a businessman who attempted to run for Governor of Michigan but was disqualified from the ballot for submitting fraudulent signatures needed for ballot access. He’s employing a unique strategy in order to get on the stage for the August 23rd Republican debate; selling t-shirts for $1 and counting them as one of the 40,000 unique small donations necessary to qualify. Will it work? Probably not, but it’s at least a unique way to try and push past the arcane debate qualification rules that help establishment candidates like Trump and DeSantis.
#11: Ryan Binkley (TX): (Previous: 17)
Binkley is doing the best of the second-tier candidates. I’m not entirely sure it is going to matter. He is going hard with an Iowa-centric strategy, with some flirtations in other states and other events. But unless he figures out a way to get on the debate stage, it’s hard to imagine that he’s going to be much of a factor.
First Tier: Debate Team
#10. Former Congressman Will Hurd (TX) (Previous: 9)
Hurd was only a three-term Congressman, but he also is a veteran CIA operative and a critic of Trumpism within the party. As foreign policy and national security become more important issues heading toward 2024, Hurd is well-positioned to take advantage of both his national security bona fides as well as his anti-Trump stance. Hurd also made no commitments to support the GOP nominee in 2024, so that will keep him off the stage of any RNC-controlled debates. He better have a plan to overcome that or else this is just an exercise to sell books.
#9: Former Gov. Asa Hutchinson (AK) (Previous: 7)
He’s running for President, which is still a bit of a surprise to me. Some think Hutchinson is the ideal Republican candidate. I question that after seeing what the modern Republican Party has become. But Republicans have done worse, and almost certainly will in 2024.
#8: Governor Doug Burgum (ND): (Previous: 11)
Burgum got points for having a decent debate and still making the debate despite rupturing his achilles tendon. He used his wealth to qualify for the first Republican Debate, which was a unique way to sidestep the RNC’s goofy rules. A PAC supporting Burgum is going the more traditional route to try to get Burgum to meet the RNC’s higher debate qualification standards.
#7: Former Governor Nikki Haley (SC): (Previous: 6)
She had a good debate that’s for sure. I’m not sure it’s going to help in the long run. Trumpworld is seeing a surge for her in the polls, but is it too early? Will it matter?
#6: Former Vice President Mike Pence (IN) (Previous: 5)
The longer goes on without Pence making a splash, the harder it is going to be to gain any traction to stay in the top tier. I mean, he’s a former Vice-President and is a household name in the GOP. You can’t say he’s left for dead already, but it’s getting late early out there.
#5: Vivek Ramaswamy (OH): (Previous: 8)
The debate proved this guy is little more than a dislikable goober who thinks the way forward is to just be Donald Trump’s fluffer. But he’s likely on the rise partially because of his choosing to be a fluffer, but also because there is historical precedence for it. But I’m not sure “I am in this race to take the America First agenda further than Donald Trump ever did” as a message is going to go very far in a world where Donald Trump is up 40%. Nor is raising the voting age to 25. But I’m sure that Republican voters will love the fact that he worked for George Soros. Or his rap career. Vivek’s problem is the fact that he makes Donald Trump look honest with all of his flip-flops and dishonest takes about things that he said.
Also, here’s Vivek questioning Al Sharpton’s lack of political experience.
#4 Gov. Ron DeSantis (FL) (Previous: 3)
Remember when I said that Ron DeSantis looked unbeatable? I’m not sure he makes it to New Hampshire anymore. A third of the staff was cut. Nazi imagery was used. He got into a car accident in Tennessee while campaigning but was in a Florida state government car. He suggested he could appoint Democrat Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. as head of the FDA or the CDC before backtracking. Ron DeSantis seems like he’s campaigning solely to Trump voters. There is no way he can pivot to a general election after some of the crazy stuff he’s said. Right now, this looks like a campaign starting to circle the drain.
#3: Former Gov. Chris Christie (NJ) (Previous: 3)
Christie keeps moving up the list because he may be one of the last men standing. He has been very aggressive with his Republican opponents, notably Trump. I’m not sure today’s Republican electorate is gonna go with it, but he is better poised to go far than most of the field right now. He had a very good first debate, though again I’m not sure how much it will really help him.
#2: Sen. Tim Scott (SC) (Previous: 2)
Many have said that Tim Scott is the one to watch. The fact that Oracle billionaire Larry Ellison is ready to spend tens of millions on Scott’s behalf in SuperPAC spending means that the greater Scott infrastructure will have plenty of money to keep him afloat. This could very well be a “slow and steady wins the race” situation if Scott can keep his head above water. Of course, now he’s getting questions about his bachelor status so that’s a thing somebody wants to make an issue of.
#1: Ex-President Donald Trump (FL) (Previous: 1)
Facing 91 criminal charges and yet the rubes keep him at the top of the polls. Maybe this is why the RNC is low on fundraising…..
Dropped Out: Francis Suarez (#14: suspended campaign); Glenn Youngkin (#9; he’s not running, no matter what he does or does not say