The Maine Event

The only way that Maine Democrats could ever beat Susan Collins this year isn't with Graham Platner...

Janet Mills reminded voters yesterday that she is, technically, still in this race. She never filed the paperwork to remove her name from the ballot. She simply “suspended active campaigning.” And given what has happened to Graham Platner over the past week, the reminder landed with some weight.

Which means the Maine Democratic primary on June 9 has three candidates on the ballot worth evaluating, even if only one of them has been regularly attending campaign events. The pWAR framework does not care about campaign activity. It scores candidates against a replacement-level generic partisan placeholder. Let’s run the numbers.

The replacement level for the Maine Democratic Senate primary is set at 1.0 pWAR, equivalent to the Maryland Democratic baseline. Maine is a purple state trending blue in federal elections, and Democrats have structural advantages in a 2026 anti-Trump environment. A generic Democratic nominee in this race would carry real value. These candidates are being measured against that.

It’s really not a close call.