The Runback: Prediction Time
It's almost all over but the shouting. So let's talk about what I think happens tomorrow.
Welcome to another week of The Runback. Have you been enjoying The Duckpin? Do you have comments or suggestions? Do you want to write for us? Let me know at theduckpin@gmail.com. And please be sure to follow on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube. Thanks in advance.
News and Politics
A midterm look from a competitive state, a few days out: A blowout or a nothing burger?
November 2022 Republican Presidential Power Rankings: No more definitive proof exists as to why our #1 is sitting at #1.
National Teacher's Union, Trone Family Team Up to Try to Defeat Michael Hough: Outside Interests spend over $400,000 to prop up Fitzwater
Baltimore City Council Covers Their Six: City Council votes to amend pension requirements days before voters vote on term limits.
How Do We Come Back From This? That so many people agree with a key tenet of QAnon is, shall we say, not good.
No, the FBI Headquarters Decision Should Not Be About "Equity" There are plenty of reasons why Angela Alsobrooks should be concerned about losing the FBI Headquarters to Virginia. But making a case for “equity” is as effective as making no case at all.
One Pasadena's Joe McCarthy Moment: Debi Jasen submitted her enemies list to the Anne Arundel County Council. She and her minions at One Pasadena have become a menace to society.
Bagnall Campaigned with One Pasadena's Jasen: Delegate Heather Bagnall's Facebook page is littered with photos of the Delegate with the radical who turned in her enemies list to the County Government.
Last Chance to Review Our Candidate Information
The last day to vote is tomorrow! Be sure to review our candidate information before going to the polls tomorrow.
The Monday Thought
Well, we’ve made it (almost) all the way through the 2022 Election Cycle. While we don’t know the results, we know that there will be complaints, accusations, and plenty of caterwauling about the election once it’s all over with.
I’m going to go out on a limb and predict some of the elections coming up tomorrow.
Maryland Races
Governor: Wes Moore has been able to measure the drapes since the moment Dan Cox was declared the winner of the Republican primary back in July. Polls have had Cox behind the entire way, with multiple polls showing him trailing by over 30 points. Cox has talked a big game about how the election will be close, but it won’t be. Based on recent trends, however, I don’t think it will be a 30-point blowout either no matter how much Cox and his campaign deserve it for their ineptitude. The end result is going to be people realizing that Kelly Schulz could have won this race, as everybody and their brother knew before the primary.
Prediction: Moore (D) 55, Cox (R) 39, David Lashar (L) 5, others 1
Attorney General: Anthony Brown has largely stayed out of Michael Peroutka’s way. Considering how bad of a candidate Brown is and how every time Peroutka opens his mouth he loses votes, it’s the smartest strategy Brown could possibly employ. This will be a regression to the mean election.
Prediction: Brown (D) 66, Peroutka (R) 34
Comptroller: Barry Glassman deserves better than to have been saddled with the albatross that is having Dan Cox at the top of the ticket. Brooke Lierman is a terrible candidate who is Peter Franchot on steroids insofar as being an egomaniac in love with the idea of using the office of the Comptroller as a political stepping stone. Glassman will lose, but he will lose by less than Cox.
Prediction: Lierman (D) 56, Glassman (R) 44
U.S. Senate: I don’t think really anybody cares about this race. If they did, a credible Republican candidate would have run. Yawn.
Prediction: Van Hollen (D) 66, Chaffee (R) 34
Congress, District 1: Heather Mizeur is the strongest candidate to run against Andy Harris since Frank Kratovil. That does not matter one bit.
Prediction: Harris (R) 62, Mizeur (D) 38
Congress, District 2: This race could have been competitive. But Republicans nominated Nicolee Ambrose instead of a credible candidate. The party could have nominated a broomstick and probably not been able to tell the difference. The broomstick would certainly have been more honest and trustworthy.
Prediction: Ruppersburger (D) 55, Ambrose (R) 44
Congress, District 3: This might be the most winnable shot that Republicans have to pick up a seat after redistricting made it look like a district and not like an amoeba. I don’t know if Yuripy Morgan has the resources to pull this off, though I have admittedly not seen much from the Sarbanes campaign. This will be closer than a lot of people think it will be.
Prediction: Sarbanes (D) 52, Morgan (R) 48
Congress, District 6: Speaking of resources, David Trone has millions of dollars to his name. Neil Parrott has a real job. He also has this.
I do think that Trone’s millions will be a challenge too difficult to overcome with the headwinds of Dan Cox on top of the ticket.
Prediction: Trone 53 (D), Parrott 47 (R)
Anne Arundel County Executive: This is one of two races that the top of the ticket will definitely have a negative downward impact on. It is also the race I care about the most seeing as I am an Anne Arundel County resident and have been on the case of wealthy horseman Steuart Pittman for years. An accidental County Executive, Steuart Pittman does not at all deserve re-election. And yet, he has shot almost solely due to factors beyond Jessica Haire’s control. However, the tide started turning toward Republican voters at the right time, combined with Democratic complacently over the top of the ticket. This will be down to the wire.
Prediction: Haire (R) 51, Pittman (D) 49
Frederick County Executive: This is another race I expected that the top of the ticket would impact. But I’m not sure considering all the money the union interests keep dumping into this race. Everything points to Fitzwater losing by a few points.
Prediction: Hough (R) 53, Fitzwater (D) 47
Other Predictions
My predictions are much, much less informed on races outside of Maryland than inside. So, for the most part, I’m just going to pick the winners unless I state otherwise.
Alaska Senate: Lisa Murkowski (R)
Alaska Congress At-Large: Mary Peltola (D)
Arizona Governor: Kari Lake (R)
Arizona Senate: Mark Kelly (D)
Florida Governor: Ron DeSantis (R)
Georgia Governor: Matt Kemp (R)
Georgia Senate: Herschel Walker (R)
Nevada Senate: Catherine Cortez-Masto (D)
New Hampshire Senate: Maggie Hassan (D)
New York Governor: Kathy Hochul (D)
Ohio Senate: Tim Ryan (D)
Oregon Governor: Tina Kotek (D)
Pennsylvania Governor: Josh Shapiro (D)
Pennsylvania Senate: Mehmet Oz (R)
Wisconsin Senate: Ron Johnson (R)