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News and Politics
How Forcefully Will Gov. Moore Condemn Campus Anti-Semitism? UMD Commencement Speech Planned for May 20th.
What Does “Old Yeller” Have to Do with MAGA Politics? Well, Dan Cox has decided to chide us if we compare Kristi Noem’s Cricket murder to “Old Yeller style self-made American ranch life”.
The Monday Thought
We are eight days away from the Maryland Primary. The nine major Federal Races taking on across the state are all taking varied paths to the General Election. Lakes take a look.
U.S. Senate
All of the action is on the Democratic side, where Congressman David Trone and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks are in knock-down, drag-out fight that is emblematic of the usual struggles when a Senate seat comes open in Maryland.
From the outside, it’s hard to get a read on who the victor is going to be. The gloves have been off for a while, as David Trone poached a ton of Prince George’s County Elected officials to endorse him. In turn, Alsobrooks supporters have accused Trone of buying off those who have endorsed him. Susan Turnbull, who knows a thing or two about losing statewide, among them.
Also at issue is the fact that a Trone ad implied that Alsbrooks didn’t have enough experience to be in the U.S. Senate. The Alsobrooks campaign took umbrage with that, saying that Trone had only five years of Congressional experience. But Alsobrooks has never served in any legislative body and has never served on a federal level, so he has a point.
As Democratic primaries often do, things become an issue of race, insider status, and nonsense. I said from the beginning that it was Alsobrooks’ primary to lose. From what I have seen, she just might lose it after all.
On the Republican side, Larry Hogan is going to win. I acknowledge that that Robin Ficker, the Washington Generals of running for office in Maryland, has run a surprisingly disciplined and professional-looking campaign. None of this changes the fact that he is Robin Ficker and has practically no base of support.
I mean, if you’ve lost Shekinah Hollingsworth…..
Hogan will win decisively.
1st Congressional District
The most surprising thing here is that, on a recent trip to the Eastern Shore, I saw exponentially more signs for Republican challenger Chris Bruneau than Id did incumbent Andy Harris. That, of course, will have no bearing on the crushing Harris primary victory he’s about to win.
I can’t name the Democratic candidate off the top of my head and you can’t either.
2nd Congressional District
Remember when Kimberly Klacik was national news back in 2020 when she ran that hopeless campaign in the 7th Congressional District and the right fawned over her like she had a chance to win? Yeah, those days might as well be a thousand years ago because nobody cares about Klacik or her campaign anymore.
After the primary, either Klacik, John Thormann, or Dave Wallace will lose to Congressman-presumptive Johnny O.
3rd Congressional District
There are still 22 candidates in the Democratic primary alone. I said that this was State Senator Sarah Elfreth’s race back when it started. I no longer think that anymore. This is a two-person race, between Elfreth and former Capital Police Officer Harry Dunn. Dunn has become the favorite of the national Democratic crowd, which certainly chaps the ass of Maryland’s Democratic establishment that likes to stage manage this stuff so people can keep getting promoted up the chain.
All that being said, the margin of victory is going to be razor thin in this race. Dunn and Elfreth have gotten most of the publicity. Delegate Terry Hill, State Senator Clarence Lam, and Delegate Mike Rogers have their constituencies in their communities. And Delegate Mark Change is trying the desperate Hail Mary pass of a humorous TV ad.
Ultimately, I think the race will end up with Dunn edging Elfreth, with Chang in third.
4th Congressional District
5th Congressional District
The only drama here is to see how badly Mckayla Wilkes loses this time. Steny Hoyer beat her by 37% in 2020 and 52% in 2022. So there is no real reason to think she isn’t going to get blown out by a bigger margin this time.
6th Congressional District
The Democratic primary is a mess of people running just to lose to April McLain Delaney. Literally nothing of note has come out of this primary.
On the Republican side, it’s a three-candidate race between Tom Royals, former Delegate Dan Cox, and Delegate Neil Parrott, though occasionally Muslim Chaplain Chris Hyser pops up to say bonkers stuff, like trying to churn up anti-Israeli sentiment by misquoting old news stories to attack Jewish leaders.
Tom Royals was endorsed by the Washington Post, though that tends to be the kiss of death in the 6th District Republican primary. That being said, Royals has been raising money and has been working the rounds in the district.
Neil Parrott has been slow and steady in the race. He was the last candidate into the race back at the filing deadline and has been building upon his previous two Republican primary wins for Congress in this district.
Dan Cox has, surprisingly, run a reasonably sane campaign compared to his disastrous 2022 run for Governor. Of course, that doesn’t absolve him from his paranoid, late Friday night slurred rant about “Joe Biden sending Blackhawks” after him.
So who wins the primary? I have absolutely no idea. I said from the beginning that Cox was the candidate to beat. I don’t think he is the favorite at this point. I don’t know who is, but name ID may not carry Cox as far as I once thought. What I do know is that if Republicans want any chance to win this seat in November they cannot nominate Cox.
7th and 8th Congressional Districts
We’ll know how right I was in eight days, when the Senate primary moves into the heavyweight fight between Hogan and the Democratic nominee. It will create an unusual situation here in Maryland; a relevant election in a Presidential Election year.
Stay tuned.